Barcelona v Arsenal
Football : UEFA : Champions League
Tuesday, 8th March 2011 - Kickoff 7:45pm

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Arsenal fans know that Gooner silverware seems to be pretty much like the buses - nothing for ages and then two or three will come along.

It's been a barren spell for Arsene Wenger and Arsenal since winning the FA Cup on penalties way back in 2005, and although Arsenal are getting closer I don't see any relief on the football timetable yet.

Arsenal travel to Barcelona defending a slender 1-goal lead after the Gunners put in a very good performance in the home leg of the Champions League tie - and scored two second half goals at the Emirates Stadium to snatch a 2-1 victory.

But that was at home - and now Arsenal need to go on a European trip and either avoid defeat - or sneak through on away goals with a high scoring single-goal loss - say 2-3, or 3-4.

Can Arsenal do it? In a word - NO!

Despite Arsenal winning the first leg, I thought that Barcelona were the better side, and the stats back that up with Barca having 58-60% of possession (depending on whose numbers you beleive) and the Spanish side creating the better chances.

And that was playing in London where Arsenal have built up an astounding 27-9-1 record at home in the last seven seasons ... with that single loss being a defeat by fellow English club Manchester United.

On the road it has been a totally different story, as Arsenal have only managed a 13-11-13 away record against the same sides, and the Gunners record in the last six away night in Europe has been quite frankly pathetic with five losses. (see stats below)

Some of this can be blamed on the team selection by Wenger, with Arsenal looking comfortable for group progression early on, the manager has often decided to travel with a sub-standard side and attempt to take a point. Badly.

In the last two seasons I've watched Arsenal lose at Olympiakos, at Porto, at Shaktar Donetsk and at Braga and on all FOUR occasions the performances were terrible.

And then we get to the "elephant in the room" the other loss last season, where Arsenal travelled to the Nou Camp and actually scored first - but were still thumped 4-1 by Barca!

Arsenal were not actually too bad that day - but Barcelona were brilliant - and Gooners had to stick their hands up and admit that the best side (by some distance) won.

And Barcelona have been doing it to EVERYONE in Europe recently, winning their last seven home games in the Champions League - scoring 20 goals and conceding just two.

Sure, Barcelona are not unbeatable here, Heracles won 2-0 in the Spanish La Liga earlier this season, and even in Europe there have been hiccups with Barca losses against Rubin Kazan and Shaktar Donetsk (in group play) - and back in 2007 Liverpool famously won 2-1 here.

But to come into the Nou Camp and grab a positive result against this world class Barcelona side this season is probably the biggest task in club football right now - and I don't think that Arsenal are up to the job.

Barcelona Team News
Barcelona will field a makeshift central defensive pairing with captain Carles Puyol ruled out with a knee problem and Gerard Pique suspended.

Arsenal Team News :
Robin van Persie has travelled with Arsenal's squad for Tuesday's Champions League last-16 tie at Barcelona, while Cesc Fabregas is likely to be fit.

Fellow midfielder Jack Wilshere has been passed fit but Alex Song (knee) is out along with Theo Walcott (ankle).

The Betting Verdict :

It's not impossible for Arsenal to surprise here - but almost - and that's why Barcelona are priced at a best price of only 1.33 for the home win despite having lost the first leg.

On the handicap, you can get Barcelona at -1.5 goals, which means you need a 2+ goal margin of victory to make a profit. While I do not normally like giving this handicap the circumstances are different as Barcelona probably DO want to win by 2+ goals to give some comfort in the win.

And given the fact that FIVE of Barcelona's last 6 home wins have been by 2+goal margins, including a 4-1 win over Arsenal - that has to be the best betting advice.

:-(

The Statistics :

The Pick :

Barcelona 2-0 Arsenal

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :

Barcelona 80% - Draw 14% - Arsenal 6%

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

OPTIMISTIC GOONER ONLY BET :
IF you're an Arsenal fan and need something positive to bet on then I can suggest a couple of faint hopes ...

1) The price of 6.50 at Betfred for the DRAW is almost fair value. But I could possibly see a situation where Barca sit on a 1-0 lead and Arsenal (somehow) snatch a late equaliser. Barca looked like they tired a wee bit in the first match and will be makshift in midfield.

2) Consider an ANYTIME SCORE bet on your choice of :
- Bendtner @ 4.33 at Eurobet
- Nasri @ 5.50 at Ladbrokes
- or Fabregas @ 5.50 at Ladbrokes

IF Barcelona score three goals then they may ease back and Arsenal could snatch a goal - these three players would be my choice - and prices of 4.00+ for a GOAL at ANYTIME are a little high.

That's the two faint positive thoughts that I'm allowing myself ...

HANDICAP BETTING :

MAIN BET :
Take Barcelona -1.5 goals to win by a margin of 2+ goals ... even though I'll hate to see it happen.