AFL Aussie Rules
2011-04-23 - Carlton Blues vs Adelaide Crows
A Sports Betting Pick by Costanzo
Football : Australia : AFL Aussie Rules
Saturday, 23rd April 2011- Start 19:10 AEST
Venue : Etihad Stadium, Melbourne
The Blues should have an easier game here after the grudge match last weekend with Carlton. The Crows on the other hand crumbled to cross town rivals after a bright start. This game has dull Carlton win all over it.
Carlton Blues
The defence of the Blues is quite young but coming along well with blokes like Michael Jamison, Jeremy Laidler, Nick Duigan and Jordan Russel being quite useful in their opening games this season. The Crows young forwards will provide a fair match up for the defence and it will be interesting to see how it pans out.
The midfield for Carlton is where the game will be won. With Chris Judd in the middle, centre clearances are likely to go in favour of Carlton and centre clearances often result in inside 50s. Judd has a freakish ability to direct a rush kicked straight into a teammate’s hands. A bit of this on Saturday and you will see him at his dual Brownlow Medal winning best. He will get plenty of support from Kade Simpson, marc Murphy and Bryce Gibbs who all love to push forward and kick a goal.
Up forward the Blues are still a little unsteady but with key target Jarrad Waite playing up there he is beginning to loom as a threat to rival defences. Add Waite’s presence with Jeff Garlett and Eddie Betts, two of the best crumbing forwards in the game, and you have a forward line that always looks threatening.
Adelaide Crows
The two men that matter at the back for the Crows are Graham Johncock and Ben Rutten. They have plenty of experience and talent to go with it; however the remainder of the defenders are quite young and are probably a little way away from the level required at AFL. Andy Otten, Luke Thompson and Brad Symes are useful players to the Crows but will need to be a little bit more on Saturday.
The midfield is a stronger point for the Crows with Scott Thompson, Bernie Vince and Brent Reilly all running through the middle at times. Patrick Dangerfield is the Crows one piece of genuine quality at the moment and his move to midfield might be the sing of things to come.
The forward line always looks threatening on paper but there is something about the way the Crows click up forward. Sometimes it just doesn’t happen. Taylor Walker and Kurt Tippet are awesome at best but often go quiet for large chunks of the game. They are still young but will soon realise that a full 120 minute effort is required at the elite level. Ricky Henderson and Chris Knights will be expected to chime in with a few goals between them to keep the Crows within touching distance.
The Verdict
The Blues need this after their draw last week and all signs point to a Carlton win. Could be a blowout game, but I'll be a tad more cautious.
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Carlton to win by 16 or more at 1.60 at Centrebet.
