Date: 29-04-2011
Time: 19:40 AEST,
Venue: SCG, Sydney

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An unusual Friday night match in Sydney. I think it has something to do with the Royal wedding. I cannot understand why but for the sake of a good bet I am pleased Sydney is playing Carlton on home turf at this time of the season.

Sydney Swans

The Swans have had a bye and will not have played for 13-14 days by the time Friday rolls around. This along with the home-turf factor stands them in good stead against a Carlton side that is all over the shop in terms of form and consistency.

Ted Richards and Heath Grundy will be the key defenders for the Swannies but the big news for the Sydneysiders is that rebounding defender Tadgh Kennelly is likely to come back in and that will give the Swans some added run. Kennelly will complement the likes of Rhyce Shaw with the run off half back. Carlton may pose a few problems but then I think Sydney’s shutdown style of game will overpower the Blues.

In the middle the Swans are not too far off the class of Carlton. Hanneberry, Jack and Bolton are all class and if they can come close to equalling the number of centre clearances the signs will be pointing to a Sydney win.

The exciting Lewis Jetta can also run through the centre and go forward at times, but the biggest ace for the Swans is Adam Goodes. He is an elite player who is as versatile as they come, so expect to see him everywhere and anywhere. The rucking work of Shane Mumford will also be something to watch. He is a tough workhorse and I think he will overpower Warnock of the Blues.

Up forward Jesse white can contribute on a good day, and young Ben Reid is taking the necessary steps he needs to become a 200 game player at the Swans. With the class of Goodes and Ryan O'Keefe lurking around in the forward line there will always be chances for the Swans to put a score on the board.

Carlton Blues

The Blues were awful in my books against the Crows. After dominating the first term they were dictated to on home turf against an average side. It made me re-evaluate my thoughts bout Carlton.

In defence Jamison is the main man. His leadership qualities have been praised by the coach of the club and also numerous team-mates. However I don’t see anything too special with his play or on-field leadership skills. I must be watching something else. Enough said on that. The fact is overall Carlton’s defence is far from competent, and while they can offensively post big scores on their day they usually concede a fair bit too. Against Sydney conceding 85-90 might be enough, because goals don’t come easy over the Swans.

In the middle Judd, Murphy and Carazzo will need to be at their best in all aspects. Their attack on the ball will need to be unquestionable as Sydney prides themselves on their contested ball wins. The matchup through the middle will be pivotal and with Gibbs and Simpson added to the mix I give the class edge narrowly to Carlton, but they will need to make this count as the Swans have better decision making, tackling abilities and general hardness.

The name Jarrad Waite is massive in this clash. He has unwittingly become the sides number one forward after Fevola left in 09. Waite has the ability to step up and take 10-12 marks and kick 4-5 goals per week. But the difference between ability and consistency are gigantic for Waite. Eddie Betts and Jeff Garlett provide the crumbing options and given the circumstances I think it could be a night where the smaller guys are more successful for the Blues.

The Verdict

With Sydney at home and fresh after the bye, not to mention Carlton's form in the previous week, I feel a Sydney win is more likely than the odds suggest.

The Pick :

Sydney Swans 96-78 Carlton Blues

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :

75%

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Take the Sydney Swans to win at 1.78 at Centrebet.