Date: 1-5-11
Time:16:40 AEST
Venue: MCG, Melbourne

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This game was one of the premier matchups a couple of years ago, however I think the gap has extended markedly since then, and I fear for the Dogs in this one.

Collingwood Magpies

The Pies are looking the goods this year and against the Dogs at the G I think their form will be too much for them.

In defence the Pies have Ben Reid and Harry O. Those two names are all you need to know. With Hall likely to miss this week it will add pressure to the lesser known players in the Dogs’ forward line. The rebounders like Heath Shaw and Dane Swan will be sure to get things rolling forward.

In the middle a tonne of players play a part for the Pies. Pendlebury, Thomas, Blair, Swan , Wellingham and co are outstanding and are the premier midfield combination in the league at the moment. They kick goals and apply fantastic pressure to their opponents and that’s what makes them the best midfield unit in the league.

Up forward the Pies are just so versatile. Two of their key men may have slow days but their next guys will step in and fill the void and the team will still manage to post 100 points. Trav Cloke, Chris Dawes and Jolly when he pushes forward, are the big men and have the ability to take the game in their own hands. The class of Didak is always present and you just never know what freakish act he has for the crowd.

Western Bulldogs

The Dogs gave up a late lead at Freo to go down. They are now facing a red hot Collingwood needing a win desperately to stay in touch. Could be a long day for the Dogs.

In defence they will be led by Brian Lake, but are likely to be without Tom Williams. This will make things tough against a big bodied Pie forward line and I favour one of either Cloke or Dawes to have a big day and kick 5 or so goals.

In the middle Matty Boyd is the general and Cooney and Griffen add the class. They can compete speed wise, but in hardness I have to question the Doggies. The matchups across the centre suggest that the Pies will smash them in clearances and via superior ball use by the Pies it could be a mauling.

Up forward the Dogs will have to do without Hall who is likely to sit this one out through injury. Jordan Roughead, Jarrad Grant and Shaun Higgins will be asked to stand up and be counted and probably the youngest Bulldogs forward line to be fielded in more than a decade. The youngsters up front have some talent but with relentless pressure on them for 120 minutes I am not sure how they will fare.

The Verdict

The Pies could and should run rampant here, this will be well and truly over by HT. it’s just a matter of how ruthless they Pies want to be, and with competition so high for spots in their 22 I would say they won’t ease off.

The Pick :

Collingwood Magpies 119- Western Bulldogs 79

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :

90 %

HANDICAP BETTING :

Take Collingwood -33.5 pts at 1.92 at Centrebet.