Date:14-5-2011
Time:19:10 AEST
Venue: GABBA, Brisbane

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This game appears quite easy from a betting point of view. The poor Lions lost to their neighbours at the weekend and their neighbours are none other than the GC Suns. They were torn apart in defence by a weak team at best and I think Essendon have the capacity to really put them to the sword.

Brisbane Lions

The Lions only lost last week by 8 points, but that is irrelevant due to their opponents. This week the Dons visit and if the Lions cannot fix their defence quick smart the margin can and will blow out, because Essendon have proven themselves to be one of the most explosive sides in the competition this year.

As good as Daniel Merret has been in defence he cannot be everywhere and it is the Bombers pace and unpredictability that will see them burn this defence and post a very nice score. The best the defence can do is improve on last week’s outing, however with that said they are a long way off being able to quell a rampant Bombers side for 4 quarters.

In the centre the Lions face several mismatches. Whilst there is still class on the books for Brisbane in Simon Black and Daniel Rich, the gap to the next tier of midfielders is too big. Expect to see the Lions challenge for perhaps a quarter and a bit at best but the Dons have the leg speed and silk through the middle in this clash.

Johnno Brown is still likely to be missing for this one after a horror round one injury. That leaves the Lions in dire need of serious goalkicking options. Last week Ashley McGrath kicked 6 goals in one of the better games of his career. But the question is how realistic is that? Can we expect him to repeat that again this week? The answer is no and with that in mind the Lions will be forced to rely on a string of young players that are not yet proven. Could be a really long night for the helpless Lions.

Essendon Bombers

The Bombers 3rd quarter against the Dockers at the weekend was simply awesome and turned the game on its head. Their ability to be strong after HT, makes my concern for the Lions in this game even more substantial.

In defence the inspirational Dustin Fletcher is having a great season with his rejuvenated Essendon team. The run from the back is massive for the Dons and it is their youthful exuberance that can make or break them. Fortunately, so far this year it has made them as they have claimed some nucie scalps and played exciting footy at the same time.

Through the middle the Bombers are slowly becoming one of those sides who has numerous options to run through the midfield. This is a sign of a good team and with Jobe Watson in career best form in the guts, there is no doubt that these young Bombers have one aim this year and that is a high finish in the top 8. Zaharakis adds tonnes of excitement when he gets the ball due to his sheer pace and if the delivery inside 50 is right, the Lions will get blown out here.

In the forward line the Bombers are starting to have too many options. This is a great dilemma to be in because when injury strikes there are able back-ups. David Hille and Paddy Ryder both feature up front at various stages of a game and with their ability as top-line ruckmen it is sure to exploit the Lions. The smaller forwards like Monfries and Reimers add excitement and some of the things they are capable of a downright awesome. I think it is a big game for the Dons forward line.

The Verdict

On form the Bombers win this comfortably, although the Lions will try to make things tough at their home venue.

The Pick :

Essendon 128- Brisbane Lions 89

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :

90 %

HANDICAP BETTING :

Take Essendon to win by 25 or more points at 1.67 at Centrebet.