AFL Aussie Rules
2011-06-04 - Geelong Cats vs Western Bulldogs
A Sports Betting Pick by Costanzo
Date: 04-06-2011
Venue: Skilled Stadium, Geelong
The undefeated Geelong Cats host a Western Bulldogs side that is going through a horror stretch.
I cannot believe how bad the Dogs have been this year and just cannot see them keeping this too close in Geelong especially if the weather holds up.
Geelong Cats
( Record : 9-0 -- Last 5 : WWWWW )
The Cats had a big scare last week at the Gold Coast but had a
massive second half where they restricted their opponents to just a goal. This is what the Cats do as good as anyone, have one or two quarters per game where they hit the scoreboard hard. The Dogs will have to be aware of this but I'm not sure if they can stop it anyway.
The Cats defence has Scarlett and Milburn who are just so experienced and every decision they make is a winner. They will be keys in this game against a Dogs side who is struggling to find scores of late. Lonergan and Taylor will fill the key position roles and they should keep their direct opponents rather quiet in this one.
The midfield will see the Cats run rampant once again. James Kelly is a man who doesn't get many mentions. But since Ablett has left he has stepped up and is really pushing for elite status with his consistency. His ball use is pretty good but his pressure is second to none. Bartel, Selwood and Varcoe will add the class to the middle and they really should just overpower the Dogs across the four quarters.
Up forward the Cats still have issues but Johnson showed his class last week kicking a career best 7 goals. With assistance from Stokes, Chapman and Menzel Geelong should and will post a very good total on home turf down at Skilled Stadium.
Western Bulldogs
( Record : 3-6 -- Last 5 : LLWLL )
The Dogs have been woeful and need to turn things around soon if they are to be finals bound. Do not see it happening in this one.
Brian Lake, Tom Williams and Dale Morris will have their work cut out for them this week and I expect to see them get peppered from a Geelong forward line that often runs riot at home.
In the midfield Sherman, Ward and Cross lack the class that the Cats have and I see the ball coming out first in favour of the Cats a lot more than the Dogs. The rotations also favour the Cats with not too many others good enough to run through the middle for the Dogs in the same league as those like Varcoe, Corey and Chapman.
In the forward line the Dogs have been woeful of late. They cannot seem to post a score. Hall, Higgins and Giansiracusa are normally three blokes that you could bank on about 7 goals per week, but this year they have been all over the place and with not that many other options I think this is where the gulf between the two sides will be most accentuated.
The Verdict
The Cats win easily here and should cover the spread
The Pick :
Geelong Cats 121-67 Western Bulldogs
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Geelong to beat the spread of -39.5 points at Centrebet at 1.92.
