Time: 19:10 AEST
Date: 04-06-2011
Venue: GABBA, Brisbane

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The Brisbane Lions got a breakthrough win on the road last week and the tide might have turned for them, however the Swans will be a tougher proposition than the disappointing Adelaide Crows who have now joined the ranks of the AFL's laughing stocks.

I think Sydney coming off a close win over North Melbourne can come away with another close win in this one.

Brisbane Lions
( Record : 2-7 -- Last 5 : LLLWW )

The Lions have really appreciated the return of captain Johnno Brown and will be looking to make it three wins on the trot in this clash with Sydney.

The Brisbane defence really does rely on the likes of Merret who is the best spoiler in the game. Merret is a monster and he always goes the fist in a manner that makes him appear as a real retro type defender. His style is lost on the modern game however it is still extremely relevant and he has much success when at full fitness.

The midfield of Black and Rich will battle all night to stay on top of the clearances and in Rich, the Lions have one of the most promising young midfielders in the league. I think the Swans and Lions will battle it out long and hard in this one in order to attain supremacy. The odds suggest the two teams are close but I feel the Lions are too attack oriented and the Swans ability to lock down the opposing midfielders will give them the edge, I feel.

In the forward line Brown's return will give the Lions a focal point but at the same time I don't know if the Lions can deliver him enough ball. McGrath has been popping up of late scoring a few goals and between him and Power I think they will need to nail maybe 6 between them to have a sniff.

Sydney Swans
( Record : 5-1-3 -- Last 5 : LWWLW )

The Swans won a nail-biter in Melbourne last week and now travel up to Brisbane. I don't think the Swans mind who or where they play.

Sydney are perhaps the most well-drilled side in the league and have been so since Roos took the helm around 02-03. Longmire is now the coach but he was under Roos for a long time so the modus operandi is still the same for the Swans.

In defence Tadgh Kennelly is the exciting man. He runs and carries from defence and his explosiveness through half back often results in Sydney scoring opportunities. The Sydney defence will need to be on their game with Brown and McGrath lurking but I think they might have an edge.

In the midfield the Swans have Hanneberry, Jack and Bolton but also a couple of stars in Goodes and Jetta. Goodes reputation precedes itself and Jetta is a young up and comer who can use his blistering pace through the middle to full effect. I think the Swans might have a small edge through the middle and in the ruck with Mumford.

The forward line sees the Swans with a few different options however they are not a high scoring side. I think it will be a close game where they fight out the result. White is useful as is McGlynn and if Goodes pushes forward you can expect him to bob up with a goal or two.

The Verdict

The Sydney Swans to win in a close one.

The Pick :

Sydney Swans 91-85 Brisbane Lions

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :

85 %

HANDICAP BETTING :

Take Sydney to cover the spread of +2.5 points at 1.92 at Centrebet.