ENGLISH PREMIER BETTING PICK - ARSENAL V FULHAM

English Premier

2011-11-26 - Arsenal vs Fulham

A Sports Betting Pick by Gooner

ARSENAL v FULHAM
Football - England - Premier League
Saturday, 26th Movember 2011 - Kickoff 17:30

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Arsenal

Arsenal have had an eventful start to the 2011-12 season, which started badly with the sale of Cesc Fabregas to Barcelona and Samir Nasri to Manchester City, and then got worse with a 8-2 thrashing at Old Trafford.

Throw in the 3-4 defeat to Blackburn Rovers at Ewood Park - thanks to a couple of own goals - and Arsenal found themselves in the wrong half of the Premier League table, with a huge injury list and nothing going right.

Enter Robin Van Persie. The Dutch striker had been in good form already during 2011, but "Captain Vantastic" has gone into over-drive scoring almost at will to turn things around for Arsenal.

Now, just two months later, Arsenal have won 11 of their last 13 games, including the last five English Premier League games in a row, and have qualified for the knockout stages of the Champions League as Group winners with a game to spare.

Amazing turnaround.

Arsenal Team News :
Arsenal have some doubts about Diaby (ankle) and Rosicky (thigh) and five more players are definately out, but they are all long-term injuries and have been absent for some time already : Gibbs (stomach), Miyaichi (ankle), Jenkinson (back), Sagna (broken leg), Wilshere (ankle)

Fulham

Fulham have played a lot of matches already this season, as you'd expect with the club playing in the Europa League, but with a smaller squad than most clubs that play in Europe it is starting to show in domestic results.

I was aware that Fulham have always earned the bulk of their points at home at Craven Cottage, but I've found some stats that just underline how poorly Fulham are travelling.

Fulham have won just 12 of their last 101 away matches in the Premier League, and incredibly Fulham have never won a match at Arsenal in 25 attempts in all competitions, drawing 3 matches and losing 22 times.

Fulham Team News :
Fulhams injury list is significant with a number of experienced players out for this match : Davies (knee), Kelly (groin), Sidwell (hernia), Duff (calf), Grygera (knee), Sa (hamstring)

The Betting Verdict :

Yes, I think that Arsenal will win - but the price of 1.40 to 1.45 is definately not good value as it is possible that Fulham can spring some sort of surprise.

Instead I want to back Robin Van Persie - who has scored 31 goals in 29 Premier League games in 2011 for Arsenal and 7 goals in his last 4 appearances at the Emirates.

In the 10 home Arsenal games this season Van Persie has been first goalscorer 5 times, and remember that he did not play in either Carling Cup game.

Fulham have only scored 3 away goals this season, and only scored on 1 of their last three visits to the Emirates, so the Cottagers are unlikely to score first.

You can get a price of 3/1 (4.00) on RvP to score first at Paddy Power and however I look at this, it seems to be a pretty good bet.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

BEST BETTING TIP :

MAIN BET :
Take Robin Van Persie to score first at Paddy Power at 4.00.

It's a much better price than anytime goalscorer and RvP will definately start the game - but may get a breather if Arsenal can get a solid lead midway through the second half.

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