English Premier
2012-05-06 - Newcastle United vs Manchester City
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
Football : English : Premier League
Sunday, May 6th, 2012, 1:30PM GMT
PREVIEW
I think there's time for at least one more twist in the tale, don't you?
Manchester City had virtually run away with the title, before a horrible slump meant United were so far ahead BetFred went and paid out on tickets calling for a Red Devils title win. United then began to drop points and after a toothless loss to Wigan, inexcusable draw with Everton they went to Manchester City and were outplayed and beaten. Advantage back with City, who need to win their last 2 games to lift the trophy. But is it ever that easy?
Newcastle are having their best season since they were racing clear towards the title during Keegan's reign. The Magpies are very much in place to finish in the top 4 to qualify for the Champions League, and anyone who doubted them will have had to rethink their views after they went and beat an in-form Chelsea to nil at the Bridge. Yet, Manchester City are favourites of 1.75, and 1.65 at some books. Insulting it definitely is. Bad value? No question.
City needing the win doesn't mean they are going to get it. Chelsea are in form and needed the win too but they got done by this Newcastle team while having home advantage. Manchester City needed to win away too, at Arsenal, but got blanked and beaten by a Gunners side that have allowed Norwich and Wigan to score more than once at the Emirates and take points off them. Manchester City are in for the fight of their lives this afternoon. In comparison, the 2 games against Manchester United are going to look like child's play.
I'm not saying City aren't going to win. They may well have learnt from blowing their previous chances under pressure. They also now have Tevez back in the squad, and he has been a serious weapon in these final games, as his partnership with countryman Aguero continues to flourish. However, Newcastle have Papiss Cisse up front, and you'd bet against him scoring at home here at your own peril. Cisse has already equalled the league record held by Kevin Phillips and Mickey Quinn by scoring 13 goals in his first 12 Premier League appearances. Last week's 2 strikes against Chelsea will not be soon forgotten.
One final bit about current form. Manchester City's 6-1 mauling of Norwich and their clinical 1-0 win over Manchester United may be fresh in ones memory. But know that City have won just 4 of their last 12 away games in the league. Newcastle have dropped just 4 points at home in 2012, spanning 9 games. Their last 9 games have seen them lose once at Wigan, but pick up maximum points in all the other 8 games!
BETTING VERDICT
If Manchester City can come here, under the pressure they are going to be under, and deal with this Newcastle United side, then they deserve to lift the title. I just wouldn't bet on it.
I'm going to lay Manchester City on the exchanges, as I believe Newcastle look good for at least a point, if not a massive upset win.
And prices of 3.25 on Papiss Cisse to score at any time are a joke and, for values sake alone, must be taken.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Newcastle to avoid defeat
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Papiss Cisse to score at any time @ 3.25
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
