Semi Final 1
Subiaco Oval - 6.45pm GMT + 8

Season Records :

West Coast (3rd) 15 wins 7 losses

Collingwood (6th) 13 wins 9 losses

Recent Head to Head :

2007, Round 2 - West Coast 87 def Collingwood 75 @ Subiaco
2006, Round 16 - Collingwood 127 def West Coast 90 @ Telstra Dome
2006, Round 7 - West Coast 112 def Collingwood 98 @ Subiaco
2005, Round 9 - Collingwood 118 def West Coast 95 @ MCG

The Teams :

Having their crippled team even further decimated by injury on the weekend against Port, West Coast led for most of the match to go down gallantly by 3 points.

Ben Cousins tore his hamstring and Chris Judd's groin finally gave away both in the third quarter, yet West Coast stayed there right until the end and almost pinched it.

Though they lost, West Coast proved yet again they are a team that plays their very best when it counts.

Port Adelaide's recent fast flowing football vanished in the low scoring affair as West Coast shut down the areas that Port had relied on doing the most damage.

The narrow loss said much more in favour of the West Coast side than it did for the fully fit Port side at home. Though losing Cousins and Judd (no longer a negative) West Coast will welcome back Chad Fletcher and Ash Hansen, who have had an solid impact in their games this year.

Collingwood, though gifted a position in the final 8 with their 18 from 22 games in Melbourne are seemingly back to their winning form that has won them respect with an inexperienced side.

Collingwood easily disposed of the disappointing Swans, for the 3rd time this year last week with, seemingly the same game plan all 3 times.

They have named an unchanged side, which is rich with young talent such as Pendlebury, Goldsack, Thomas and Rusling (3 of which played in their first final last weekend) and lead by proven game winners in Buckely, Rocca, Didak and Fraser.

This will be the 5th time in 24 games where Collingwood will leave Victoria and it's way out West from a 6 day turn around, compared to the West Coast's 7 days.

The Verdict :

The worrying sign for Collingwood is that from their 14 wins this year, 1 has come against a side above them on the ladder in the Kangaroos by 3 points in round 1 (if you remember, Grant hit the post in the last minute handing the Pies the win.)

Out of the 6 teams left in the finals the Kangaroos remain the only side they have beaten. On top of that, Collingwood have not beaten West Coast at Subiaco since 1992! Yet from their 4 games away this season, they have recorded 3 wins.

In saying all that, this West Coast side is probably their 2nd weakest fielded all year which is why Collingwood entered the betting as favorites.

In my average player rankings, taking into account the loss of talent West Coast have suffered ... I still have West Coast the better team by 0.5 of a player, add this to the home advantage and recent final success and it's hard for me to see Collingwood winning this.

It will be far from an easy West Coast victory, as I am expecting to see one of the worst games of the year. It's going to be tight, low scoring and grizzly.

The Pick :

West Coast Eagles to win.

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

I suggest taking West Coast at anything between 1.90-2.00 while you still can!