Spanish La Liga
2009-04-12 - Real Madrid vs Real Valladolid
A Sports Betting Pick by Shady
Football: Spain, Primera Division
Sunday, 12th April 2009 - Kickoff 16:00
Real Madrid will have to win to keep the pressure on Barcelona who seems firm favorites to win against Recreativo Huelva on Saturday.
Real Madrid are currently 6 points back but if Barcelona wins and anything less than a win for Real would seem almost impossible for Real to catch up with Barcelona with the season drawing to a close.
Juade Ramos is pretty happy with the way things are going on in Madrid since his arrival. Juande Ramos is likely to name almost an unchanged squad that defeated Malaga 1-0 last weekend.
Diarra who has recovered from his injury is expected to come in place for Van Der Vaart. However Juande Ramos is certain to be without Ruud Van Nistelrooy, Mahamadou Diarra and Ruben De La Red as they are out with respective injuries.
Rual and Klass Jan Huntelaar should start up front. In midfield, Fernando Gago and Diarra should start in the heart of midfield accompanied by Higuain and Sneijder or Robben.
In defense, Sergio Ramos will miss the game through suspension and his likely replacement would be Miguel Torres while Pepe, Metzelder and Henize completes the back four.
With the kind of formation Juande Ramos deploys, Higuain is almost playing as a striker instead of a right midfield. This does give Real the extra man going forward and creating the opportunity. I see no major concerns over this Madrid lineup.
Valladolid are without Jose Antonio Garcia and Jonathan Sesma while Luis Prieto and Alvaro Rubin are doubtful for the clash. With Real Madrid winning 7-0 against Valladolid last season, Valladolid will want to take a little revenge but It seems quite unlikely.
Betting Statistic :
Under the asian handicap line this season, Real Madrid have managed to payout five out of their fifteen home games. Since the turn of the year Real Madrid have only lost ONCE on the handicap.
On the other hand, Valladolid has lost nine games out of the fourteen they’ve played on the road. Valladolid have been winning on the handicap but their performance last time out against Sevilla was horrible.
The Betting Verdict :
This is the business end of the football season and Real Madrid simply can't afford to have any slip ups. Barcelona is yet to travel to the Santiago Bernabau and it is vital for Real Madrid to stay as close as possible to Barcelona.
In addition based on the betting statistic, both clubs have similar record on the handicap line therefore I think backing Real Madrid would be a better choice.
With no other commitments for Real Madrid this season as they’re out of the Copa Del Ray and the Champions League, there should be no reason for them to rest any key players nor a rotation system.
I do fancy Real Madrid winning this game probably by a 2 -3 goal margin.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Real Madrid to win by 2-3 goals
BEST BETTING TIP :
Real Madrid to win the game at a price around 1.35
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Real Madrid to cover the 1.5 ball head start.
