University College Dublin v Mervue United
Football: Republic of Ireland, First Division
Friday 24th July 2009 - Kickoff 19:45

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U.C.D host the fast sinking Mervue in Dublin on Friday night in what would be another uncomfortable night for Mervue.

I will be honest and say that this punt is primarily an anti-Mervue pick, but when you look at their recent form it is easy to justify.

Mervue were expected to finish at/near the bottom of this table (11th - 12th in the table), but actually started reasonably well, winning 3 and drawing 1 of their first 7 league games. Since then Mervue have only won 1 in 11 games, and have taken some significant batterings home and away of late.

U.C.D are a curious side, and while they are 2nd in the table they actually have a poor enough home record of won 4, drawn 2 lost 3 (contrasting a W7 D1 L0 away record). This is partially due to 2 recent home defeats to top sides Sporting Fingal and Shelbourne.

These sides are far stronger than Mervue. U.C.D's recent form hasn't totally deserted them however, and they have won their last 3 away games and mid-lower table opposition vs Wexford, Kildare and Monaghan.

When you examine Mervue's recent run of results, you can see why U.C.D are clear favourites. Last week Mervue lost 3-0 at lowly Longford, the week before they lost 4-1 at home to Kildare County - the only league game Kildare have won all season.

Before that Mervue got beaten 7-0 by Shelbourne (at team similar in quality to U.C.D). A 5-1 drubbing to lower mid-table Monaghan came before that.... Mervue's bubble has clearly burst, and they are now sinking fast - a trip to 2nd placed promotion chasing U.C.D could be a disaster.

U.C.D were a regular side in the permier division - they will want to get back there and 3 points will help enormously in what will be a tight run in between the leading 4 sides. U.C.D will also be determined to improve their average home record, and willl see this as a perfect opportunity to rebuild after 2 tough losses vs top 4 sides .

Here is the recent form of both sides, most recent games first;

U.C.D (2nd - Home Rec : 4-2-3 13:6)
W 1-0 vs Wexford (a)
L 0-1 vs Shelbourne (h)
W 1-0 vs Kildare (a)
D 1-1 vs Finn Harps (h)
W 3-2 vs Monaghan (a)
L 0-1 vs Sporting Fingal (h)
D 0-0 vs Limerick (a)
D 0-0 vs Waterford (h)
W 1-0 vs Athlone (a)
W 3-1 vs Longford (h)

Mervue (11th - Away Rec : 2-1-6 8:22)
L 0-3 vs Longford (a)
L 1-4 vs Kildare (h)
L 0-7 vs Shelbourne (a)
L 1-5 vs Monaghan (h)
L 0-2 vs Finn Harps (a)
W 1-0 vs Limerick (h)
D 2-2 vs Athlone (a)
L 0-1 vs Wexford (a)
D 1-1 vs Finn Harps (h)
L 0-2 vs Waterford (a)

U.C.D failed to beat Waterford, Shelbourne and Sporting Fingal, but these 3, along with U.C.D are well clear of all the other sides in this division. They also struggled vs Finn Harps, but they are flying at the moment and are 7 matches unbeaten.

The Betting Verdict

Shelbourne got 7 vs Mervue recently and while I'm not saying U.C.D will hit 7 but they will clear at least a 2 goal margin, possibly 3 goals.

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Take U.C.D to win by more than 1 goal

Maybe a smaller stake on U.C.D to win by more than 2 goals.