USA v El Salvador
Football: FIFA World Cup 2010
North, Central America and Caribbean (CONCACAF) Qualifiers
Saturday 5th August 2009
Kickoff 9pm local - 01:00 GMT

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Home teams have been dominating the CONCACAF qualifiers, especially since the "hexagonal" final qualification stage began.

In the first 18 fixtures of this last round, there has only been one road victory. That was from Costa Rica who are currently atop the table with 12 pts from 6 games winning in Trinidad & Tobago who are tied at the bottom of the table with only 5 points from 6 games.

There have also only been 3 draws which means that leaves 14 home victories in 18 games.

On Saturday night El Salvador will travel to Sandy, Utah to take on the United States.

These two teams met in March in El Salvador. An early goal from Quintanilla sent the home crowd into a frenzy that eventually carried the home team to a second goal in the 72nd minute for a two-goal lead. Soon after the US team responded with a goal from Altidore in the 77th minute and then Hejduk came up with a miracle goal two minutes from time to salvage one point.

The United States currently sits in 3rd position in the table (the last automatic qualifying spot). They are just one point clear of Mexico after the defeat at the Azteca last month. This is a must-win game for the US national team against a team they should be able to handle easily.

The US team should be similar to the Confederations Cup team with a few add-ins from the Gold Cup roster (namely Stuart Holden who has looked great in the Gold Cup and almost set up a go-ahead goal in Mexico last month).

El Salvador has been very poor away from home. A very lackluster Gold Cup saw them eliminated in the Group Stage by Jamaica along with a loss to Canada.

They have seemed to play very defensively away, losing their last 3 away games WC qualifying by 1-0 scorelines (against T&T, Honduras and Costa Rica).

Even in the prior stage, the Salvadorians only managed a scoreless draw with Haiti, a 1-0 loss to Panama and another 1-0 loss to Costa Rica away from home (and a win at Suriname).

In fact, in 16 WCQ away games since 2000, El Salvador has only found the net in 6 of those games (and those are against the weaklings of the region – Guatemala, Belize, Bermuda, Anquilla, St Vincent / Grenadines, and Suriname.

GROUP RESULTS

USA 3rd in group (3-1-2 11:8)
11/02/09 USA 2-0 Mexico
28/03/09 El Salvador 2-2 USA
01/04/09 USA 3-0 Trinidad & Tobago
03/06/09 Costa Rica 3-1 USA
06/06/09 USA 2-1 Honduras
12/08/09 Mexico 2-1 USA

EL SALVADOR 5th in group (1-2-3 6:8)
11/02/09 El Salvador 2-2 Trinidad & Tobago
28/03/09 El Salvador 2-2 USA
01/04/09 Costa Rica 1-0 El Salvador
06/06/09 El Salvador 2-1 Mexico
10/06/09 Honduras 1-0 El Salvador
12/08/09 Trinidad & Tobago 1-0 El Salvador

HEAD-TO-HEAD

(US 7 wins - 3 draws - 0 losses)
28-03-2009 El Salvador 2 - 2 United States
11-06-2007 United States 4 - 0 El Salvador
08-10-2004 El Salvador 0 - 2 United States
03-09-2004 United States 2 - 0 El Salvador
11-07-2003 United States 2 - 0 El Salvador
26-01-2002 United States 4 - 0 El Salvador
15-11-1997 United States 4 - 2 El Salvador
28-06-1997 El Salvador 1 - 1 United States
15-01-1996 United States 2 - 0 El Salvador
04-11-1989 United States 0 - 0 El Salvador

THe Betting Verdict

This looks to be a likely USA win as evidenced by price of 2/11 on the home win. I do see this as a fair price as the USA just can’t let this slip away and they are the far better side.

I will also be placing a small wager on a scoreline of 2-0 at 5/1 (although 1-0 and 3-0 are both possible as well).

The Pick :

United States 2-0 El Salvador

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Take the UNITED STATES to win.