Costa Rica v Mexico
Football: FIFA World Cup 2010
North, Central America and Caribbean (CONCACAF) Qualifiers
Satursday 5th September 2009
Kickoff 10pm local - 03:00 GMT

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Two of the best teams from CONCACAF will meet Saturday night in Costa Rica. As mentioned in the USA-El Salvador preview, home teams have been dominant in the hexagonal stage thus far.

Costa Rica comes into the game as the group leader with 12 points. They have been in very good form at home, including a 3-1 win over the USA. They are also the only team to grab an away win in this final group stage– against struggling Trinidad & Tobago.

Mexico, on the other hand, is sitting an unfamiliar 4th place with 9 points. At the moment they would be forced into a playoff with the 5th place CONMEBOL team for a WC spot. Mexico had been in worse shape with only 3 points from the first 4 games, and the team was under real pressure after a loss to El Salvador. The team responded with home wins over Trinidad & Tobago in June and then the USA last month.

El Tri also won the Gold Cup over the US 5-0 in New York City. However, that was a second-tier of USA that held them at bay for 50 minutes or so. Mexico struggled with teams like Haiti in the group stage.

These two teams met in the knockout stage of the Gold Cup in July. Although the game was in the United States, it was very much a home atmosphere for Mexico. In what appears to be Mexican tradition, the fans were throwing beer and water all over the Costa Ricans at every corner.

Mexico struck first, but it was in the 88th minute for what appeared to be a sure game winner. But Costa Rica equalized just before time and the game eventually went to penalties, where Mexico prevailed. It should also be noted Mexico was not playing all of its top players.

Although Costa Rica sits atop the group, this game may carry more importance for them. Two of their remaining three after this are away (including one at USA).

Mexico, on the other hand, will finish with 3 very winnable games (2 at home and a visit to lowly T&T on the last day).

PAST GROUP RESULTS

COSTA RICA 1st Place (4-0-2 9:9)
11/02/09 Costa Rica 2-0 Honduras
28/03/09 Mexico 2-0 Costa Rica
01/04/09 Costa Rica 1-0 El Salvador
03/06/09 Costa Rica 3-1 USA
06/06/09 Trinidad & Tobago 2-3 Costa Rica
12/08/09 Honduras 4-0 Costa Rica

MEXICO 4th Place (3-0-3 8:9)
11/02/09 USA 2-0 Mexico
28/03/09 Mexico 2-0 Costa Rica
01/04/09 Honduras 3-1 Mexico
06/06/09 ES 2-1 Mexico
10/06/09 Mexico 2-1 Trinidad & Tobago
12/08/09 Mexico 2-1 USA

HEAD-TO-HEAD
23-07-2009 Costa Rica 1 - 1 Mexico
28-03-2009 Mexico 2 - 0 Costa Rica
16-06-2007 Mexico 1 - 0 Costa Rica (Extra time)
16-08-2005 Mexico 2 - 0 Costa Rica
08-02-2005 Costa Rica 1 - 2 Mexico
23-07-2003 Costa Rica 0 - 2 Mexico
06-10-2001 Costa Rica 0 - 0 Mexico
15-06-2001 Mexico 1 - 2 Costa Rica
08-11-1997 Mexico 3 - 3 Costa Rica
18-06-1997 Mexico 1 - 1 Costa Rica

As you can see, Costa Rica has had very little success against Mexico in the past - only 1 victory in the last 10 meetings.

THe Betting Verdict

Although Mexico seems to have found its groove in recent months, I don’t think it can be trusted to get 3 points away against a quality opponent like Costa Rica.

My prediction is Costa Rica 2-1 Mexico scoreline, although I do not necessarily like the odds and would not place any large stakes on it and I would probably go with Costa Rica DNB at 3/4.

However, one bet I do like a bit more is both teams to score at 5/6.

Costa Rica always seem to find the net at home and I do not think they are good enough defensively to keep Mexico scoreless at this point.

The Pick :

Costa Rica 2-1 Mexico

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Take BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
This is priced at 1.83 at Bet365