Scotland v Netherlands
Football: FIFA World Cup 2010 European (UEFA) Qualifiers
Wednesday 91th September 2009 - Kickoff 19:30

---

Scotland (2nd) 3-1-3 6:10

It's last chance saloon for Scotland, who look likjely to finish second in the group, but unless the Scots win on Wednesday night the points total might not be enough to earn a playoff spot - as only the top eight runners-up will progress.

Scotland have played up to expectations in this group so far, they were seeded second (moving up one seeding group after a good campaign last time) and the wins over Iceland and Macedonia were expected victories - another sign that Scottish football is improving.

Scotland will be aiming to make lightning strike twice with another home win over the Dutch - but that is a huge task.

Scotland Team News :
Scotland are hopeful that Craig Gordon (thigh) and Scott Brown (ankle) will be fit, and they will be assessed in the build-up to kick-off. Steven Fletcher is expected to recover from an illness, while Gary Caldwell is back after suspension.

James McFadden, though, is ruled out of the game through a suspension of his own, while Calum Davidson has withdrawn due to injury.

Netherlands (1st) 7-0-0 16:2

Netherlands coach Bert van Marwijk has said that "Winning all eight games is an extra motivation for me" but while it would be nice for the Dutch to complete a sweep - I cannot believe that it is a huge target for the players who are already thinking about a return to their clubs this weekend - and planning for 2010 World Cup finals.

That's not to say that the Netherlands will come to Scotland and be prepared to lose, just that it's natural that if the game finishes all square I won't expect to see much Dutch disappointment.

The Netherlands have won all three away gmes in the group, beating Macedonia, Norway and Iceland by single goal margins, pretty much as expected - but Scotland are a tougher side - and my ratings have this as a closer game.

Netherlands Team News :
The Dutch were given a boost when Wesley Sneijder declared himself fit although number-one keeper Maarten Stekelenburg remains a doubt with an injured finger.

THe Betting Verdict

Scotland are unbeaten at home during this qualifying campaign, while the Netherlands have won all three away games - something has to give here.

The Dutch are the better footballing side, but playing at Hampden Park always raises the level of Scottish football - as demonstrated by that famous 1-0 win over Netherlands six years ago.

Scotland have the motivation to win, but I feel that the Dutch players also have motivation to not lose and the ability to make sure that happens.

Scotland can win this game, but it's likely to be through a late goal if it happens, while the Netherlands have shown that an early goal for them usually means a comfortable victory.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

Scotland 1-1 Netherlands

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :

Scotland 27% - Draw 34% - Netherlands 40%

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

The DRAW is the only result where the price offered is good value - so that's what I'm taking.

Ladbrokes have decided that a draw will not occur - and have a stand-out 3.60 price on offer. I'll take that.