Honduras v USA
Football: FIFA World Cup
North, Central America and Caribbean (CONCACAF) Qualifiers
Saturday, 10th October 2009 - 9pm local / 3am UK

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With two games remaining, the race for the 3 automatic qualifying spots in CONCACAF is tighter than ever. The United States will can lock up a spot with a win on Saturday as they travel to Honduras. There had been some question as to where the game would be played due to political unrest, but FIFA kept the game in Honduras.

The US team currently leads the group with 16 points, with Mexico at 15, Honduras at 13 and Costa Rica with 12. Regardless of the outcome on Saturday, the USA can qualify with a draw at home to Costa Rica in the final match.

These two teams have met three times since June in the States. In the WCQ in June, Costly put Honduras up 1-0 in the fifth minute, but Donovan converted a penalty shortly before halftime and Bocanegra came up the game winner in the 68th minute.

The teams also met twice in the Gold Cup in July (in the USA). USA won both games 2-0, each time with a team of mostly reserves. The Hondurans didn’t field their absolute best either, as Carlos Pavon was not with the team.

The US will be without Clint Dempsey (shoulder injury) for this game. Not a huge loss in my opinion, but it will be interesting to see who takes his spot.

The US road form has been average at best. Three 1-0 wins in the beginning of the competition against the regions weaklings and then a loss to T&T (although a spot in the next round had been secured beforehand). In this final phase, the US has too often given up an early goal and had to scratch back in. They managed a miracle draw after falling down 2-0 in El Salvador, but were beaten soundly in Costa Rica and then floundered in Mexico City.

The US problems are the same as they have been for years – no great attackers. Donovan, Davies and Altidore have all been good lately, but the opportunities are too few. They created fewer chances than T&T in the last game, but found a way to win 1-0. That won’t be a successful strategy in Honduras.

Another factor to consider is that the next match is much more important for the US. With several players having a little yellow card trouble, they could sub out or change strategies if things aren't going well to ensure that the best squad is available for Wednesday. They have also said they will be watching the score in Costa Rica, although the games are at the same time.

Honduras are currently third with 13 points. Their final game will be away to El Salvador, so they will be anxious to grab 3 points at home.

Honduras has been spectacular at home. They have won all 8 home contests in this qualifying run, scoring 22 and only allowing 3 (2 of which were very late in games that were already decided). This includes two wins over Mexico and a 4-0 thrashing of Costa Rica. Most of the scoring has come from Costly and Pavon.

The head-to-head history between these two teams is very one-sided as the US has won 8 of the 9 meetings since 1991 (one win on penalties), but this is the best Honduran team in a very long time (maybe of all time).

With Costa Rica and Mexico both expected to win easily on Saturday, this is the featured match of the group. I must say the odds shocked me when I saw them. I can’t imagine Honduras is any less than 50% to win this game, yet they are priced at almost 2 to 1. This is their best chance to qualify for the World Cup in quite some time and they should be at the top of their game.

As I mentioned previously there has only been 1 away win in a game between two of the "big 4" and that was Mexico (the best of the big 4) over Costa Rica (the worst of the big 4).

The Betting Verdict

The bet – take Honduras to win. I wish I had posted this sooner as the price has fallen from 9/5 to 6/4. I still think that is a more than fair price.

GROUP RESULTS

HONDURAS 3rd Place (4-1-3 14:8)
11/02/09 Costa Rica 2-0 Honduras
28/03/09 Trinidad & Tobago 1-1 Honduras
01/04/09 Honduras 3-1 Mexico
06/06/09 United States 2-1 Honduras
10/06/09 Honduras 1-0 El Salvador
12/08/09 Honduras 4-0 Costa Rica
05/09/09 Honduras 4-1 Trinidad & Tobago
09/09/09 Mexico 1-0 Honduras

USA 1st Place (5-1-2 14:9)
11/02/09 United States 2-0 Mexico
28/03/09 El Salvador 2-2 United States
01/04/09 United States 3-0 Trinidad & Tobago
03/06/09 Costa Rica 3-1 United States
06/06/09 United States 2-1 Honduras
12/08/09 Mexico 2-1 United States
05/09/09 United States 2-1 El Salvador
09/09/09 Trinidad & Tobago 0-1 United States

The Pick :

Honduras 2, USA 1

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Take Honduras to win