NCAA Football
2009-10-17 - Oklahoma Sooners at Texas Longhorns
A Sports Betting Pick by Goober
Saturday 17th October 2009 - Kickoff 12PM EDT,
Venue : Dallas, Texas
The “Red River Rivalry” will be renewed this Saturday in Dallas at the Cotton Bowl. Although it is played in Texas, it is a neutral site as Dallas is midway between the two schools and tickets are allocated evenly. It's one of the best rivalries in sports and is not just a game - it's a 3 day party in Dallas for fans of both teams.
#3 Texas Longhorns (5-0)
Texas has enjoyed a solid, but unspectacular, start to the season. They are 5-0, but their only real test has been a 34-24 home win against Texas Tech a few weeks ago. Otherwise, they have feasted on low-level opponents and have only played one game away from their home stadium. Texas knows it must win all of its games to have a chance at the national title.
Texas features one of the best QBs in the nation in Colt McCoy. Their running game has struggled, though, and their best two RBs are questionable for this game with injuries. Texas’ strongest unit by far has been the defense this year.
Texas is only 1-4 ATS this year. However, the smallest spread for any of their games up until now has been -19.5. Two games they have failed to meet the spread by just 2.5 and 0.5 so the spreads have been close on most of their games.
#20 Oklahoma Sooners (3-2)
Oklahoma, on the other hand, has played a much tougher schedule, but have lost both games they have played against ranked opponents (each by only a single point).
QB Sam Bradford was hurt in the opener and only returned to action last week, but looked pretty good and should be in good form for this game.
Oklahoma is only 2-3 ATS this year, but then again those were without Sam Bradford for the most part.
With the losses, Oklahoma has lost any chance at a national championship, but will still be focused on winning the conference. They most likely have to win this week to have any chance at that.
Head to head
In head-to-head action, Texas has covered the spread the last 4 years, but Oklahoma covered the 5 years before that.
Last year’s game was a 45-35 shootout, but this year’s game figures to have a little more defense as both teams are ranked in the top 10 in the country in defense.
Because of that the Total Points line has been set at 52. It should be noted that no Oklahoma games have gone OVER the total so far this year.
The Betting Verdict
This shapes up to be a close, exciting game. The weather will be near perfect so that shouldn’t influence things at all.
I’ve got a feeling this comes down to the wire, so in that case I will take the team with the better coach and special teams.
The Pick :
Texas 27, Oklahoma 20
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Texas -3 to win and cover the handicap for medium stakes.
