Ukraine v Greece
Football: FIFA World Cup 2010 European (UEFA) Qualifiers
Wednesday 18th November 2009 - Kickoff 18:00

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Ukraine - Home 4-1-0 9:1

Ukraine achieved exactly what they set out to achive in the first match, earning a scoreless draw in a tough environment, determined not to concede a goal.

Now in Donestsk they will have the chance to win and qualify for the World Cup Finals in South Africa, and there will be plenty of confidence in the home sides ability to achieve that given the recent home record.

With Andriy Shevchencko upfront, the home side have the player capable of breaking the deadlock.

With just one goal conceded at home, and with three of those four home victories by a single goal margin, I do not expect a goal-fest.

Greece - Away 2-2-1 7:4

This Greek side seem to be rapidly falling away from the high standards set during Euro2004, and the results have been slowly difting off - underlined by draws in Israel and Moldova.

The loss to Switzerland is telling, the Swiss were the strongest opponent that Greece faced, and I feel that Ukraine at home are even tougher.

Perhaps Leverkusen striker Theofanis Gekas can score - he is top scorer in European qualification with ten goals in ten qualifiers - and if he does then Greece will take a huge step to qualfiication.

THe Betting Verdict

The advantage is clearly with the Ukrainians, now with the climate, conditions and crowd will all add up to the equivalent of a 12th man on the pitch.

I have the Ukraine side as a half goal stronger in this reverse match, but given the naturally cautious outlook of both sides that still does not mean a straight-forward win.

It might take extra-time, it might take penalties, but I think that we will see Ukraine progress.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

Ukraine 1-0 Greece (or 0-0)

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :

Ukraine 40% - Draw 33% - Greece 27%

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

I can't back Ukraine at those prices, and under 2.5 goals is similarly poor.

Instead try a couple of correct score bets :
- Ukraine 1-0 @ 6.00 (available generally)
- DRAW 0-0 @ 7.50 at Bet365

Or Greek fans can try :
- Theofanis Gekas anytime scorer @ 4.33 at PaddyPower