Bosnia-Herzegovina v Portugal
Football: FIFA World Cup 2010 European (UEFA) Qualifiers
Wednesday 18th November 2009 - Kickoff 20:00

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Bosnia-Herzegovina - Home : 3-1-1 16:8

Bosnia-Herzegovina are the one of the big improvers in European football, and perhaps they've been underestimated by a few people.

The 7-0 thrashing of Estonia, and big 4-1 win over Armenia was followed by a 2-1 victory over Belgium. All very good wins, earning FIFA ranking points and will mean an easier group next time.

But the 1-1 home draw with Turkey, followed by the 2-5 loss at home to Spain just underline that Bosnia-Herzegovina still have some painful lessons to learn in world football - and this may be one of them.

Bosnia-Herzegovina will be missing three suspended players Emir Spahic, Elvir Rahimic and Samir Muratovic for the decider.

Portugal - Away : 3-2-0 8:1

Portugal have faltered several times in this qualification campaign, but even without super-ego Ronaldo they still have played some very good football at times.

The away record was solid, with three wins, and draws at both Denmark and Sweden hardly poor results, and having won the first leg of this tie a draw - and even a scoring single goal loss will do.

Portugal created a lot in the first match, but they squandered chances and lacked creativity in the final third of the field without Ronaldo - even so this could have been a 2-3 goal lead now.

The Betting Verdict

This is the toughest game of the playoffs to call, as Bosnia clearly have the ability to score a goal - given that they scored in all five home qualifiers.

But if Portugal manage to score a goal themselves - and Bosnia do concede plenty of goals - then the home side will need to score three times in order to progress and that seems too hard.

Normally, I'd have Portugal to win this game, but without Ronaldo, and with the situation saying that a draw will be enough we could see this game end tamely - in a 1-1 draw.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

Bosnia 1-1 Portugal (or 1-2)

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :

Bosnia 12% - Draw 33% - Portugal 55%

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

My stats say that the away win for PORTUGAL is a great value bet.