English Premier
2009-12-05 - Arsenal vs Stoke City
A Sports Betting Pick by Gooner
Football: England, Premier League
Saturday, 5th December 2009 - Kickoff 15:00
Arsenal (4th) Home 5-0-1 20:7
Once again Arsene Wenger's foible of attempting to compete for a season at the top level of European football with half a squad has taken until mid-November to come unstuck.
Competing in the Premier League and Champions League is tough enough, but Arsenal fans would also like to see good progress in the domestic cups as well - albeit that we have now got used to the fact that the "kids" will get a run in the Carling Cup.
Wenger's continued attempts to maintain a squad of 15-16 top flight players, with a similar number of raw recruits simply is not going to work in England - typically acknowledged as one of Europe's most physically demanding leagues.
Arsenal's top XI can compete, as we saw for the first 10 games of the season, but the lack of depth beyond 15-16 players is in stark contrast to Manchester United and Chelsea.
Arsenal Team News :
Arsenal will be without Van Persie, Bendtner, Walcott, Clichy, Gibbs, Nasri, and Denilson while Song is suspended.
Stoke City (9th) 1-4-2 4:8
Stoke City have improved markedly from last season, and it's a testament to the improvement of the Potters that they come into this game in the top half of the table with just one defeat in their last six away games.
Stoke's away form is solid. They have drawn four of their last six away games, and also grabbed a 1-0 win over Tottenham at White Hart Lane and so the huge price of 14.00+ on the away win isn't the silliest bet.
However, the thing that stands out about Stoke's away games is the tight nature (if we ignore the 0-4 loss at Liverpool in the first away game) and Stoke have a 4:4 goal difference in the last six.
Stoke City Team News :
Dean Whitehead will miss the game through suspension after picking up his fifth booking of the season in the 0-0 draw at Blackburn.
Abdoulaye Faye is on standby in case Ryan Shawcross fails to overcome a groin injury.
Head to Head
Arsenal won this game 4-1 last season, running away with the game in the second half, although it's important to note that it was at the end of the season when the injury list had thinned.
In the reverse fixture at Britannia Stadium last season, Stoke beat Arsenal 2-1.
THe Betting Verdict
Arsenal desperately need a win, but the nature of Arsenal in recent seasons has been an extended period of poor results as the injury list grows.
Just because Arsenal "need" a win doesn't mean that it happens, and we can look to an extended sequence of home draws last December and January against mid-table sides as proof.
Stoke can win here, although they'd have been better advised to shut-up in the press prior to coming to the Emirates. Ricardo Fuller's blathering in the press about beating Arsenal in advance of the game will not help Stoke's cause.
This game could be a bit of a scrap, and although Arsenal are more likely to edge the game, the draw does loom large in my thinking.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Arsenal 2-1 Stoke City (or 1-1 Draw)
BEST BETTING TIP :
I think that will Arsenal winning is still the most likely result - BUT the price is poor from a betting standpoint.Instead I prefer a wee wager on the shock DRAW available at a large price of 5.50 - too large when we consider Stoke's ability to earn away points this season.
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Getting STOKE +1.75 goal start seems a great bet - Arsenal COULD win by 2+ goals - but all those injuries make it less likely now (compared to a month ago).
