Roger Federer v Andy Murray
Tennis: Australia, Australian Open Men 2010 (
Sunday, 31st January 2010 - Start 8:30am GMT

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This is a wonderful final in prospect to begin the new tennis season and one that has many sub-plots underlining the match.

Preview

Roger Federer, the current World Number 1 and winner of 15 Grand Slam titles, comes into this match as favourite after dropping only 2 sets in the 6 matches he has played here. He won a comfortable Semi Final against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and has looked very fit and focused on this tournament.

The big match for Federer here was the Quarter Final against Nikolay Davydenko, a man who had beaten him 2 straight times, and after losing the first set and finding himself 1-3 down in the 2nd set, Federer could have been forgiven for thinking another defeat was on its way. However, the Swiss star found his form at just the right time, as Champions do, and won through without too many scares in 4 sets.

Federer has looked solid behind his serve so far in this Championships for the most part, but has had lapses to lose it too which will be a concern against a returner of Murray's ability. His groundstrokes have been very effective while also making full use of the drop shot.

Andy Murray dropped 1 set en route to this Final, his 2nd at a Grand Slam event, and he will be hoping for a better performance than the one he produced at the US Open in 2008 against Federer.

Of the 6 opponents Murray has beaten, only 2 are in the top 20 of the World so his fairly straightforward progress through this event has to have been expected. He looked very impressive against Rafael Nadal in the Quarter Finals for the 2 sets they competed, while Marin Cilic took a set off him in the Semi Final and looked to be far too fatigued to be a real threat.

Andy Murray will have to get his tactics spot on here to cause any kind of upset of the World Number 1. He played very aggresively against Nadal in one match, but then seemed to play a lot more conservatively against Cilic and will need a bit of both against Federer here. His serve has been much more effective in the last 2 rounds and will also be an important shot for the Brit.

Head to Head

Andy Murray is one of the few players on tour that holds the head to head advantage over Roger Federer at 7-4.

Murray seemingly seemed to have an Indian sign over Federer since the US Open Final as he won 4 straight matches against the Swiss man, but that has since been reversed with Federer winning their last 2 matches.

Andy Murray holds a 4-2 advantage over Roger Federer on hard courts.

Prediction

Roger Federer seems to turn on the style for these tournaments and there is a bit of added motivation for him as Murray seems to bother him more than most players. He will be keen to extend his own Grand Slam winner record and ensure it stands for some time and he is also keen to point out all the pressure that Murray should be feeling.

Andy Murray has the hopes of a nation resting on his shoulders and this does bring pressure, but with a tournament out in Australia, it is easier to avoid than if this match was to take place at Wimbledon. He has played well so far in the tournament but this will be his toughest test by a long way.

Only Rafael Nadal and Juan Martin Del Potro have beaten Roger Federer in a Final of a Grand Slam event which should highlight how difficult this is.

My heart hopes Murray can pull this out, but my head thinks Roger Federer will come through in 4 sets - 6-3, 4-6, 6-4, 6-2.

The Pick :

Roger Federer 6-3, 4-6, 6-4, 6-2

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Roger Federer WIN (Anyone who backed my outright tip on Andy Murray should lock in a profit as I will, but good luck if staying with the British Number 1)