Wednesday 24th February 2010

Inter Milan

Last 6 Games at Home – Champions League Only
P5-W2-D3-L1-F5-A3

Jose Mourinho’s Inter host current Premiership leaders Chelsea at the San Siro on Wednesday night in the first leg of their last 16 Champions League tie. The Italians are flying high at the top of the table in Serie A but like at his time at Chelsea, Mourinho is under huge pressure to win the Champions League.

With the return leg in London, the first leg is hugely important for Inter, they will want to take a lead away with them but not at the expense of an away gaol. Knowing Mourinho from his time in England, I will be stunned to see his side go for goals in the this leg, however he knows the Chelsea team inside and out and would be confident of over turning even a small deficit after Wednesday’s games. So how will Inter play on Wednesday?

Firstly just looking at the stats from the last 6 home games, we can see this side does not have lots of goals in them, just the 3 in 6 games with 4 coming against Rubin and Dynamo, they failed to score against Barcelona and Manchester United at home as well as Panathiaikos! In the domestic league Inter has played 13 home games scoring 27 at just over 2 a game which isn’t that great considering they are top of the league, it’s at the other end where they are impressive just the 11 conceded, which Is less than a goal conceded a game. The last 6 home Champions League games also back this up, despite not scoring many they only conceded 3 goals and 2 came against Dynamo of all opponents, they shut out both United and Barcelona, not many can say they have done that before.

A worry is the very recent form in the league, back to back 0-0’s including the last game against Sampdoria where Inter played over an hour with 9 men which must have had an impact physically on the team. On the other hand, drawing 0-0 when it’s 11 v 9 for a long spell of the game will probably be a huge moral booster for this side. Whether it’s 11 v 11 or 11 v10 or even 9! Inter is a hard team to score against and I like their chances of shutting out the Blues on Wednesday evening.

Looking at the team news important keeper Julio Cesar recently was involved in a car accident on Monday, be it a minor one he has suffered a few facial injuries and I believe the vastly underrated keeper will start. I also predict 4-5-1 and not 4-4-2 as I believe Mourinho will happily take 0-0 with a 1-0 win being icing on the cake, the away goal is huge as I personally don’t see Inter scoring say 2 or more in London, this leg sets the tone of the tie. With that said, in front on Cesar will be Maicon, Cordoba, Lucio, Santon with a midfield 5 of Muntari, Zanetti, Stankovic, Cambiasso and Sneijder which leaves Milito alone up front.

Lots of expectation is on Sneijders shoulders to create chances, he’s having a good season in Milan and is the sort of player I expect to cause the Chelsea side some problems, the problem is the rest of the midfield is very “workman” like and it’s hard to see them hurrying and competing psychically with Chelsea midfield. Even so, with 5 of them in there I think they will certainly make an impact especially as Essien is out and Lampard is recovering from flu which could well play into Inter’s hands. Inter win the midfield battle then they will win this leg for sure.

Predicted Lineup: Julio Cesar; Maicon, Cordoba, Santon, Lucio, Zanetti; Stankovic, Cambiasso, Muntari, Sneijder, Milito.

Chelsea

Last 6 Away in Champions League
P6-W3-D-3-L0-F9-A5

Chelsea are about to finally come face to face against ex-manager Jose Mourinho on Wednesday night. Carlo Ancelotti also returns to Milan to face a manager he has faced several times before and will be eager to get one over his old foe.

As we can see from the last 6 away games, Chelsea are hard to beat on the road in this competition, in this unbeaten streak the Blues have visited Athletico Madrid, Barcelona, Juventus and Liverpool all of who are big names European football and how many beat Chelsea? That’s right an astonishing zero! Chelsea did only beat Liverpool in all those ties with the 3 others as draws but what’s impressive is that after the first leg of an away tie the Blues are always in contention come the return leg. The Juventus and Liverpool knockout ties from last year back this up, not many can say they have taken 5 away goals back with them to England.

Despite this impressive away form in Europe, I’m not as convinced they will get an away goal this time around. Like Inter, this Chelsea side’s mentality is to keep It tight, we are not going to see a “Real – Barca” end to end sort of game here, but instead a tactical chess game between two great coaches. I don’t know Ancelotti’s record against Mourinho when at AC Milan but considering Jose won the league title every year I assume it wasn’t a great one. This time around given he has a better team than what he had in Milan (in my opinion) he can get his revenge on the self acclaimed special one. However, will we see him do this away from home in the hostile caldron that is the San Siro? I don’t think so. Keep it tight and look to win it at home in 2 weeks time, that’s the impression I’m getting.

Team news for the Blues is that both Zhirkov (calf) and Lampard (flu) should recover in time to start. Carvalho is likely to be recalled for Wednesday’s game with Ivanovic moving to right back and then Ferreria dropping to the bench. The midfield is much weaker without Essien in it and had he of been fit I’d be very confident picking Chelsea but without him I think Inter could win the midfield battle against Lampard, Mikel, Ballack and Malouda. Up front we are likely to see Anelka and Drogba paired together but if Ancelotti is here for the draw Anelka will either play wide or even be dropped for another midfielder.

Predicted Lineup: Cech, Ivanovic, Terry, Carvalho, Zhirkov, Lampard, Mikel, Ballack, Malouda, Drogba, Anelka

The Betting Verdict :

I have a bad vibe the Blues will be heading to Italy looking to sneak a 1-0 themselves which may be their up doing and against a manager who knows this team inside and out.

I favour Inter slightly to take something to defend in London in 2 weeks time.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

Inter 1-0 Chelsea

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :

Inter 40% - Draw 33% - Chelsea 27%

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Take Inter Milan to win @ 2.75 Pinnaclesports

HANDICAP BETTING :

Inter +0 AH 1.95 William Hill or if you like a HT/FT dabble:

Draw/Inter @ 6.50 BlueSquare