Stoke City v Arsenal
Football : England : Premier League
Saturday 27th February 2010 - kickoff 5:30pm

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Stoke

Last 5 Games At Home : W2-D2-L1 F8-A5

Tony Pulis’s are coming off a big win at home over Manchester City midweek in the FA Cup and on Saturday they welcome Arsenal to the Britania (the side they put out in the 4th round of the FA Cup).

Currently sitting in 11th, Stoke are having a decent season, into the quarter finals of the FA Cup and are 11 points above the relegation zone. Tony Pulis has his team drilled very well and is able to get results despite the lack of real quality in the squad. The physical direct approach is similar to how Chelsea hit their big front two and Sidibe and Fuller certainly are two big strikers, Stoke like to hit many balls either in the air or on the ground into these two as soon as possible.

Whoever plays against Stoke knows they have been in a battle come the final whistle and I’m really looking forward to their game against Arsenal in the late kick-off on Saturday.

The Britania is the 12th hardest place to vist in the Premiership, from the 13 games there this season only 3 teams have come away with 3 points (Chelsea, Manchester United and Birmingham). Stoke have 6 victories, so they are winning just under half their home games with the home wins coming against Burnley, Sunderland, West Ham, Portsmouth, Fulham and Blackburn.

Now it’s very clear that with Birmingham aside, unless you’re a “top 4” side taking all 3 points from the Britania is going to be very tough. Where are Liverpool in all this then? Well they have been poor all year and stoke needed a 90th minute equaliser by Huth to share a point so even Liverpool nearly won here, straight away I think Arsenal have an edge, Stoke are competing well but with the top 4 they are just a level behind even If playing at home.

A problem for Stoke is the lack of goals, overall this year in 26 games they have 26 goals which is obviously a goal a game but at the other end they have conceded 29, a negative goal difference may keep you around mid table but that’s as far as Stoke ever will be until they learn to find the net more frequently.

Encouragingly however, in the last 5 home games they have scored 8 goals including 8 in the last 4. The main threat isn’t really any specific player, their top scorer is Fuller with 6 then Etherington on 5, Stoke have a game plan that any of their players can execute. They fire balls into the box via direct balls or long throws it’s very much a psychical battle to get your head onto the ball before the defender does and now with Etherington having such a good season they have a big threat out wide delivering balls into the penalty area.

Team news is that Etherington has shaken off his knee injury but didn’t feature midweek so I assume he’ll make the bench on Saturday. Out wide Tuncay is due a start following his impressive sub appearance midweek with Liam Lawernce most likely to drop down. Defensively Faye and Wilkinson served their suspensions midweek and return fresh ahead of Arsenal’s visit, this will mean Dean Whitehead will return to midfield following his right back appearance on Wednesday.

Predicted Stoke City Lineup :
Sorensen, Wilkinson, Huth, Shawcross, Collins; Whitehead, Whelan, Delap, Tuncay; Fuller, Sidibe.

Arsenal

Last 5 Away Games : W2-D2-L1 F7-A4

As I mentioned last week, Arsenal can only keep winning and maintain that the pressure if firmly with the front 2. Last week they beat Sunderland at home 2-0 but this week’s away game at Stoke will be a tougher task, having already lost at the Britania in the FA Cup earlier this season.

Wenger’s men remain 6 points behind Chelsea and given their very favourable run in, this game is one of the few times I expect Arsenal to face a tricky game. It’s the worst kept secret that Arsenal struggle against the really psychical teams who have been known to bull their small in stature midfield, however maybe this is all changing I remember Bolton being a tough team to beat as they play like Stoke but this year Arsenal has beat Bolton twice this season scoring 6 goals! Stoke are better than Bolton for sure but this Arsenal team isn’t easy to break like in seasons gone by which makes Saturday’s game a mouth-watering one.

On the road the Gunners have the 3rd best record in the league with 6 wins from 13 away games but also 4 defeats. The 6 wins have come at Everton, Fulham, Wolves, Liverpool, Portsmouth and Bolton with defeats at Chelsea, Man United, Man City and surprisingly Sunderland. Sunderland aside, it takes a very good team to beat Arsenal and before Chelsea beat them at the Bridge in early February, their last road defeat was way back in November.

A huge factor for this team is their ability to score goals, with an enormous 25 goals scored in 13 games away at just under 2 a game it’s easy to see why they have the 3rd best record on their travels. A key success to that has been Cesc Fabregas who is having a massive year finding the back of the net 12 times domestically this term, he has been supported well by Arshavin (7), Van Persie (7) and surprisingly Diaby with 6. If Arsenal click on Saturday they are likely to find the net at least twice and given that they have had an extra few days to prepare compared to Stoke who have had a long 120 minute match midweek it does look good for Arsenal.

The first goal is crucial in this game, If Stoke get it I think they will look to absorb Arsenal for as long as possible which might frustrate Arsenal but if Arsenal score first I’ll let the stats speak for themselves. In the 17 times Arsenal have scored first they have gone onto win 14 of those games and I can’t see them letting this perfect opportunity pass them by given Stoke’s physical condition.

Team news is that Wenger has ruled out key defender Gallas and high scorers Arshavin and Diaby but he does welcome back Eduardo. At the back I also expect Sagna to return at right back, the main talking point is who will support Bendtner up front the candidates are Nasri, Walcott, Rosicky and Eduardo, I personally think Walcott and Nasri will get the nod with Arsenal looking like:

Predicted Arsenal Lineup :
Almunia, Sagna, Campbell, Vermaelen, Clichy; Song, Denilson, Fabregas; Walcott, Nasri, Bendtner.

The Betting Verdict ;

Normally I love opposing Arsenal in these games but I think Wenger will have worked very hard this week preparing for this battle whilst Stoke are very much unprepared.

Given the huge gulf in quality, I see only one winner. Arsenal away win.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

Stoke 0-2 Arsenal

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :

Stoke 18% - Draw 27% - Arsenal 55%

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Take Arsenal to win at 1.80 (Betsson)