English FA CUP
2010-03-06 - Portsmouth vs Birmingham City
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Portsmouth
Portsmouth's financial woes have been public news for some time, and while relegation from the Premier League is now an almost formality, the FA Cup has provided their fans with a little bit of sunshine in an otherwise desperately bleak season. They do have bigger fights in the courts to come, but should be roared on by a passionate home support here.
Pompey are currently bottom of the Premier League, but with a further 9 point penalty to come, they are virtually certain to be going down this season. They do have a 3-2-8 record at home, scoring 16 goals and conceding 20 in those matches. The side has picked up the least amount of points from home games this season and are 17th in the table when it comes to home goals scored.
The south coast side had failed to win in 9 Premier League games before winning at Burnley last weekend. They have only won 1 of their last 6 games at Fratton Park, a FA Cup win over Sunderland. That much was the only time in that stretch that Portsmouth managed to score more than 1 goal.
Tal Ben-Haim and Ricardo Rocha are both unavailable for Avram Grant in this game.
Birmingham City
Birmingham City have had a much better season than even their biggest fans would have expected and now they are 90 minutes away from a trip to Wembley. They were taken over by a Hong Kong businessman earlier this season, but he has allowed Alex McLeish to continue his fine work at the club without too much interference.
The Blues are sitting in 8th place in the Premier League thanks in huge part to an amazing unbeaten run during the middle of the season. They have proven tough to beat and have a respectable 4-2-7 away record, scoring 13 goals and conceding 20. It is impressive to see that they have the 8th best away record in the Premier League in the year after promotion.
Birmingham are 3-1-2 since losing their first match in 14 games at Chelsea. They have lost 3 of their last 4 away games in all competitions, the only win coming in a FA Cup tie at Derby County. A concern for Birmingham will be that they have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 5 away games, the clean sheets being the cornerstone of their success this season.
Lee Carsley is missing for the Blues but they have a clean bill of health other than that.
Head to Head
Birmingham beat Portsmouth at St Andrews earlier this season 1-0.
Portsmouth are unbeaten in 7 games at Fratton Park against Birmingham, going back to their battles in the Championship. However, it must be noted that most of those matches have ended in draws, with Portsmouth only winning 2 of those games.
Prediction
Portsmouth are battling away but the rain clouds gathering over Fratton Park means their future is far from clear. The players still have a lot of work to do as they will want to impress future prospective employers. They do have a couple of concerns at the back and this is going to be a big game for them.
Birmingham have been excellent this season, although they have come off the boil a little in recent games, struggling especially away from home. They have proven that they can win away games when playing the sides below them and I think they will be mentally focused with a big prize on offer.
I am finding it hard to split the sides as I think Portsmouth have got the emotions on their side, but Birmingham are the better side. I have a gut feeling that Portsmouth's season may be coming to an end although I think it may take a 2nd game to separate the sides. I'll go for Birmingham to win on the draw no bet option
The Pick :
Portsmouth 1-2 Birmingham City
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Birmingham + 0 Asian Handicap
