Fiorentina V Bayern Munich
Football : UEFA : Champions League
Tuesday 9th March 2010 – Kickoff 7:45pm

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If you think Arsenal lost their first leg in controversial fashion, you’d truly feel for Fiorentina. They had almost battled the German powerhouse to a deserved draw, only to watch the officials allow a blatantly offside Bavarian winner moments before the final whistle.

There might be a further twist in this tale yet.

Fiorentina (Italy)

Viola are languishing in midtable in Serie A, with many fans blaming their poor domestic form on their extended run in the Champions League. Indeed, the Florence outfit, who have won just once domestically in the last two months, have more than overachieved in qualifying for the knockout stages, and keeping themselves in with a chance, requiring only a 1 goal win to move into the quarters.

Cesare Prandelli will once again be without Adrian Mutu and Gobbi, who was sent off in the first leg. However, his lone striker, Steven Jovetic, is a bit of a wonder-kid, the 20 year old having netted a cool brace against Liverpool earlier this season. This will be the main danger to the Bayern defence, which will no doubt be attacked right from the start. The chances of another 4th place finish are next to none for Viola, so they will look to give it their best shot in the only competition they are doing well in.

The fans of Fiorentina will have been encouraged by their team’s stubborn first leg display in Germany. It took a penalty in injury time of the first half for the Germans to finally go ahead, before being pegged back to 1-1.

That’s how it should have ended, if truth be told, until the referee, Ovrebro, changed the tide of the game. He should have sent Miroslav Klose off for a dangerous tackle, but instead left him on, only to then allow him to head in an 89th minute winner that was miles offside. And all this after he had earlier sent of Viola’s Gobbi with 15 minutes left in the game. Harsh.

Bayern Munich (Germany)

Louis Van Gaal’s side are clearly holding an advantage here. In addition to possessing more talent and depth, they have a 2-1 lead as they visit Italy. The only worry is that away goal they surrendered, and they will be eager to score one themselves to avoid crashing out should the hosts manage the 1-0 win.

So the question is this, do they sit back and try to protect the one goal lead, or do they attack early and get the away goal that will leave Fiorentina needing at least 2 goals just to take the match to injury time?

In the first case, just the one goal from the hosts would leave them needing goals of their own, while if they were to commit more men forward and attack, they leave themselves in more vulnerable to the counter attack, which Fiorentina will be doing plenty of. It’s quite some balancing act Van Gaal will be attempting to pull off, but I feel he is capable.

I feel Bayern will sit back and wait Fiorentina to overcommit before hitting them on the counter attack. Munich have the necessary talent to employ this tactic, with the speed of Ribery and Robben down the right and left flanks, both more than capable of scoring, and the combination of Gomez and Klose up front playing predator.

In Bayern Munich's last visit to Italy, under much more intense pressure, a tanking Munich suddenly sprang to life and banged four past a stunned Juventus to win 4-1. It’s this dangerous ability of Bayern that leads me to believe they will get past this difficult match and book themselves a place in the quarters, but with the chance of an upset very much there, the bets will be placed elsewhere.

The Betting Verdict :

Fiorentina, who rested players and were duly beaten over the weekend by Juventus, will throw caution to the wind and try to score the goal that takes them through, and while there is the chance that Fiorentina come away with a big victory, more likely, the Italian side will leave themselves open at the back.

I’m tempted to suggest bets on Klose, Gomez, Ribery and Robben, and Viola’s upsets here of Liverpool and Lyon are proof enough that a Fiorentina DNB bet @ 2.10 (Bet365) would be a good one too, but I feel at near enough those odds, there is a better bet to be had.

The Statistics :

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Take both teams to score @ 1.90 (PaddyPower)