Stoke City v Tottenham Hotspur
Football : England : Premier League
Brittania Stadium, Stoke
Saturday 20th March 2010 - Kickoff 3pm GMT
Referee: Mike Dean

Stoke City (11th) Home : 6-5-4

Stoke are always tough opposition at the Britannia and it is a dangerous to oppose them against all but the top sides. Stoke’s home record may read 6-5-4 but when you consider the resources available to them, and the odds they usually go off at at home, this is solid enough form.

Stoke have only won 2 from the last 6, but that run has included Arsenal, Villa, Man City and Liverpool. They have only been beaten ( and were very unlucky in that defeat) by Arsenal this year.

Tony Pulis may not be everyone’s favourite manager, he isn’t mine, but you can’t argue with the results he gets. Stoke may be best known for their direct and long throw tactics but let’s also give them the credit they deserve, they have some decent players this season. Sorenson, Huth, Shawcross, Etherington, Tuncay are all capable performers at this level.

In fact the biggest problem for Stoke backers here may be complacency. Stoke aren’t going down, and aren’t going to trouble the European spots. They just pride left to play for now. But playing Tottenham, in front of their own fans, means you would not expect motivation to be a problem.

England hopeful Ryan Shawcross returns from his ban for this game.

Tottenham (4th) Away : 5-5-4

Despite the odd howler, Spurs are having a great season. They sit in prime position in the hunt for the final Champions League spot, occupying fourth place in the league. Achieving this target would be a huge boost for the club, one from which you would think they can go on to bigger and better things. Spurs also have a home quarter final FA Cup replay to look forward to in midweek, a competition that they love to do well in.

Playing Stoke away is the sort of game that Spurs traditionally struggle in. They have a reputation for having pretty boy footballers who don’t like going up North to provincial towns like Stoke and getting kicked about.

But Spurs have been quietly putting that reputation to bed this season. Tottenham ground out away wins at Wigan (on a horrendous pitch) and Blackburn recently, and got draws in tough away games that in recent years they would have lost. Alright, Spurs they have thrown in some inexplicable shockers, but this is a team on an upward curve.

Tottenham are also traditionally a team who have terrible luck with injuries. It is hard to have any sympathy with them, because they are also traditionally a team who buy injury prone players.

Tottenham's injury list is shocking, but was dealt an even bigger blow when it emerged on Friday that top scorer Jermaine Defoe would be out for “weeks” with a hamstring injury. Defoe scores a third of Spurs goals and will be a big miss.

Spurs injury list now reads like a pretty good starting XI: Bentley, Jenas, Lennon, Woodgate, Cudicini, Defoe, Huddlestone, King, Rose, Walker.

The Betting Verdict

I am one of the lucky ones who has managed to, in the main, back Tottenham on good days and miss their bad days. This is almost purely down to luck rather than skill. But with Stoke possibly thinking about hitting the beach, I was all set to back Spurs with their much greater motivation and ability here.

But with Defoe out, in addition to their already bulging injury list, Tottenham’s resources are stretched to the limit and the last place they want to go with a crippling injury list is the Brittania Stadium. Spring is here now and it could be raining, with the wind blowing around the exposed concrete bowl, as Stoke get in Spurs faces, challenge every ball, load the box and stick balls into dangerous areas.

Stoke have drawn with Spurs Champions League rivals Man City, Aston Villa and Liverpool here recently. With a full complement of players and a big price I’m going to back them to go one better this weekend against a Spurs side without their best two centre halves, best winger and best striker, and who haven’t won back to back away games since August.

The Statistics :

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :

Stoke City 40% - Draw 30% - Spurs 30%

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

It’s not a strong bet as the draw looks likely here, but Stoke look the fixed odds pick at 3.6.

HANDICAP BETTING :

A draw looks very likely here so Stoke City +0.25 goals AH at evens looks a solid choice. (main Bet)

Stoke at level ball at 2.7 is also worth considering.