Spanish La Liga
2010-04-10 - Villarreal vs Sporting Gijon
A Sports Betting Pick by Shady
Match Analysis :
With 8 games remaining, Villarreal still have an outside chances of qualifying for Champions League after a miserable campaign this season. However the more realistic target for the yellow submarine would definitely be a place in Europa League next season.
With Mallorca playing against Valencia this weekend, the yellow submarine knows that this is a great advantage to move up the table and push for the elite European spots for next season. Villarreal have been in great form recently notching up 5 wins in their last 6 home games, 4 on the bounce.
A win here today would see Villarreal move ahead of Bilbao to 6th spot as Bilbao is only playing tomorrow. Just when the home fans believed that there was nothing left to play for Villarreal this season, Villarreal picked up massive wins and their other rivals just went downwards.
Diego Lopez have been key to this Villarreal team lately as the home side have tighten up in their defensive half. Lopez have kept 5 clean sheet in the last 7 games and opponents have found it hard to break down this solid and organized side set out by Garrido.
Sporting Gijon had a disappointing result last weekend when rock-bottom side Xerez walked away with a draw despite Gijon taking the lead twice. Xerez is one of the weakest team in the league and by far the weakest team on the road by yet Gijon could not take all 3 points.
With Gijon playing again on Tuesday, Manuel Preciado might be contended to rest several players as it is more likely Gijon will pick up the points against bottom side Tenerife. With Alberto Rivera a card away from suspension, he might well be rested while Alberto Botia is out injured. Apart from Rivera, Luis Moran who has been key to Gijon might also be rested.
Probable Line Ups :
Villarreal :
Lopez, Venta, Rodrigues, Godin, Capdevila, Bruno, Ibagaza, Cani, Nilmar, Rossie and Lorente.
Sporting Gijon :
Juan Pablo, Lora, Gerard, Arnolin, Canella, Camacho, Carmelo, Matabuena, Mateo, Castro and Bilic.
Asian Handicap Analysis :
Under the asian handicap line this season, Villarreal is 2nd best only to Mallorca at home this season in the Spanish League. Villarreal have 67% winning rate at home with 10 wins and 5 losses under the handicap line.
However 3 of the 5 losses came at the opening weeks of the season. Since early October, Villarreal have only lost at home under the handicap line to Almeria and Osasuna.
On the other hand, Gijon have only managed 6 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses on the road under the asian handicap line this season.
THe Betting Verdict :
With Villarreal fighting for the final Europa League spot for next season, Garrido’s men knows that his side will have to take full opportunity of home advantage and defeat Gijon who are a poor team on the road.
Villarreal have won 5 of their last 6 games at home including crucial wins over Sevilla and Deportivo while Sporting Gijon have lost 4 of their last 6 away games.
With the statistic so heavily favouring the home side, i would not want to go against the home team as Villarreal are one of the having a good run and morale would be high at the El Madrigal.
The Statistics :
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BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Villarreal to win ( Main bet)
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Consider trying :
- Villarreal to keep the clean sheet
- or Villarreal to cover the -1 ball head start.
- Villarreal to keep the clean sheet
- or Villarreal to cover the -1 ball head start.
