Birmingham City v Hull City
Football : England : Premier League
Saturday, 17th April 2010 - Kickoff 3pm

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Hull City let us down last weekend - capitulating badly at home to Burnley - and I'm going to take that lesson and use it almost immediately by backing the Brummies to turn the Tigers over here.

Birmingham City (9th) Home 7-8-2 17:12

Sure, stats freaks will point out that Birmingham City have not won in their last six games (3 draws, 3 losses) and have only won two of the last six home games, but the recent fixture list has been a tough one.

With home draws against Liverpool, Arsenal, Everton and Tottenham in the last six at St Andrews, and with only two losses here in the league all season ... there is plenty of pride in that record.

The home matches against Wolves (14th), and Wigan (16th) were both won by a single goal margin, and I feel that they are a far better guide to this game than fixtures against top half sides.

This match looks an ideal chance for the Blues to get back to winning ways, and with a top half of the table finish on offer, and a good home crowd the players should have all the motivation that they need to get the job done.

Birmingham City Team News :
On-loan goalkeeper Joe Hart returns for Birmingham, having been ineligible to face his parent club Manchester City last weekend.

Top scorer Cameron Jerome has been nursing a back complaint but will play.

Hull City (19th) Away 0-4-13 10:44

Last weekend's 1-4 home loss to Burnley was a disaster for the Tigers who are now four points adrift of 4th-bottom West Ham and starting to face up to the top.

Hull manager Iain Dowie is promising some sort of response from Hull, and coming out with a few headlines about "Lion for a day" (surely he could have said Tiger?) but the facts are that Hull is not his team, or his band of players.

The Tigers have lost on each of their last six away games, conceding 18 goals into the bargain, and have conceded 70 goals overall. That's ont going to get the job done.

Hull City Team News :
Hull defender Andy Dawson is expected to recover in time from the bruised leg he suffered against Burnley last week.

Richard Garcia is sidelined with a knee injury, while fellow midfielder Stephen Hunt will miss the remainder of the season with a foot problem.

The Betting Verdict

Yes, this is a mid-table v relegation match-up - but just because a team NEEDS to win does not mean that they manage it.

It was a case in point with Hull City last weekend, with the Tigers definately needing to win and absolutely bottling it, and with Hull owning a winless travelling record of 0-4-13 there is just no sign of an away win here.

If the prices were 8/1 or 9/1 then maybe a small wager on the away side would be in order, but I'm not backing a miracle win at prices of just 4/1.

We're getting prices of 1.83 (5/6) on a side that is very likely to finish in the top 10 against a side who has lost 76% (13/17) away games!

Take the home side to win - it screams good value on nearly every level.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

Birmingham City 2-1 Hull City

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :

Birmingham City 71% - Draw 18% - Hull City 11%

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Take Birmingham City to win and oppose the "Hull must win" fallacy.