Olympique Lyon v FC Bayern Munich
Football: Europe, UEFA Champions League
Tuesday, 27th April 2010 - Kickoff 7:45pm

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Bayern Munich lead 1-0 after the first leg

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While the Barcelona v Inter Milan clash may have the big names and the pedigree, this fixture certainly has the potential to be a very good warm-up act indeed.

Olympique Lyon (France)

Olympique Lyon seem to be just about everyones favourite "second team", as the French side have produced some wonderful performances over the years - especially against Real Madrid - without ever really progressing very far.

Now Lyon are in the semi-finals it seems that stage fright gripped the team last week as Lyon put together a very average performance in Munich and were well beaten.

However, Lyon have been very good at home this season in the Champions League, with five wins and a draw, scoring 15 goals in total, and this tie is not beyond the French club yet.

Lyon coach Claude Puel knows that the target has to be a win by two clear goals, and has been quoted as saying that his team will be "enterprising and confident".

Team News :
Cris is likely to play despite suffering hip and knee injuries in Munich, saying on Monday: "I feel better and should be OK". Boumsong has resumed training and is expected to play.

Out : François Clerc (knee), Joan Hartock (ruptured Achilles), Mathieu Bodmer (hamstring)
Doubtful : Jean II Makoun (groin), Lisandro (ankle), Jean-Alain Boumsong (calf)
Suspended : Jérémy Toulalan

Bayern Munich (Germany)

Bayern Munich will be rueing a series of missed chances in the first match, as well as the dismissal of Franck Ribery, but the German side will still travel with some confidence based on their away form.

Bayern have only won two of their five away games in the Champions League this season, but the three losses have all been by a single goal margin (1-2, 2-3 and 2-3) thus all five away result so far would have been good enough to progress.

Munich's defence has been a little bit suspect when travelling this season, and the German side has conceded NINE goals in the last four away games, but have always found a way to get the result that they need.

One name that has shone out is that of Arjen Robben, with the Dutch midfielder finding the net for vital goals in away legs against both Fiorentina and Manchester United, and again in the home leg against Lyon.

Team News :
Tymoshchuk has not travelled to France while Demichelis and Van Buyten picked up minor calf problems on Saturday and Klose missed training on Monday with a cold.

Hamit Altıntop trained on Sunday after recovering from a groin problem and will be available.

Out : Anatoliy Tymoshchuk (illness)
Doubtful : Martín Demichelis (calf), Daniel Van Buyten (calf), Diego Contento (leg), Miroslav Klose (illness)
Suspended : Danijel Pranjić, Franck Ribéry

The Betting Verdict :

This game seems to have so many valuable betting angles that I wonder if I am looking at the correct odds - as I'm in disagreement with the bookmakers over nearly all the prices.

Firstly, I have Lyon as just over 50% likely to win the match (especially given Bayern penchant for doing just enough) and so the 2.50 price on the home side is great value.

Secondly, the bookmakers appear to be saying that this will be a tight game with "UNDERS" the favoured goal total option - again I cannot agree with that view and OVER 2.5 GOAL could be a bet that is won by halftime.

Finally, the price of 3.40 (at Bet365) on Arjen Robben to score anytime is a steal - and I have to get on that bet as I feel that Robben will be the main threat for Bayern Munich.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

Olympique Lyon 3-2 Bayern Munich

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :

Lyon 53% - Draw 26% - Munich 21%

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Main bet :
I'm taking Olympique Lyon to win this match

Side bets :
Consider OVER 2.5 GOALS as a good option as well
And ROBBEN TO SCORE ANYTIME also stands out at that price.