Italy v Paraguay
Football : FIFA World Cup 2010 : Group F
Monday 14th June 2010 - Kickoff 19:30 GMT

---

Italy (FIFA Rank 5)

Italy's performances in qualifying top of UEFA's group 8 with a 7-3-0 record seemed to be one of a side unable to come to terms with the status of title of "world champions".

Games were won, but in a group that contained minnows Georgia, Montenegro and Cyprus that was the minimum expected and the Italian fans became increasingly dismissive of the style of football.

Although Italy did eventually qualify for South Africa, a series of lacklustre performances since, including a disasterous Confederations Cup showing mean that all is not well in the Azzuri camp.

Still, all that can change over the course of this tournament, and winning the title is really the only thing that matters.

Italy Warm-up Form

Nov 14 2009 D 0-0 H v Netherlands
Nov 18 2009 W 1-0 H v Sweden
Mar 03 2010 D 0-0 - v Cameroon (in Monaco)
Jun 03 2010 L 1-2 - v Mexico (in Belgium)
Jun 05 2010 D 1-1 A v Switzerland

Coach Marcello Lippi has early problems with Mauro CAMORANESI and Andrea PIRLO (calf injury) both to miss this game.

Paraguay (FIFA Rank 31)

Paraguay qualified very comfortably from South America's COMNEBOL group, finishing in 3rd position just a single point behind winners Brazil and nine points clear of the 5th placed play-off position.

Home form was the key to qualification with 7 wins from nine matches, including wins over Argentina (1-0) and Brazil (2-0), but away form of 3-3-3 shows a less than fearsome overall record when travelling.

Despite this, Paraguay grabbed a 1-1 draw in Argentina, and defeated runners-up Chile 3-0 on the road, and so did show that Paraguay can play at any venue.

This variability in form has been demonstrated in subsequent friendly games, with a loss in Ireland contrasting with a draw in the Netherlands and a 2-0 win over Greece last time out.

Paraguay Warm-up Form

Nov 18 2009 D 0-0 A v Netherlands
Mar 31 2010 D 1-1 H v South Africa
May 15 2010 W 1-0 - v North Korea (in Switzerland)
May 25 2010 L 1-2 A v Ireland
May 30 2010 D 2-2 - v Ivory Coast (in Switzerland)
Jun 02 2010 W 2-0 - v Greece (in Switzerland)

Paraguay are always well organised defensively, but eith the combined firepower of Roque Santa Cruz, Nelson Valdez and Salvador Cananas upfront - Paraguay are capable of causing a shock if under-estimated.

The Betting Verdict

This first match in Group F pits the top two ranked sides in the Group against each other - and immediately it's apparent that the most important thing is not to lose.

Italy are notorious for starting slowly in major tournaments, and the two buildup matches in Europe certainly showed a lack of combinations in the squad.

In a game where both sides are likely to have a protectionist approach to the match, and in a situation where a point earned would set up both countries well ... I think that we should expect a stalemate.

Of course, both sides have players that are capable of pinching a goal, but if that happens then both sides are likely to try to sit back and defend the lead rather than push for a second goal.

The Pick :

Italy 1-1 Paraguay (or 0-0)

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :

Italy 43% - Draw 33% - Paraguay 24%

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

I think that this game is very likely to go UNDER 2.5 GOALS and I'll take that as my main bet.

Result punters - or those wanting a bigger price - should consider the DRAW at around 3.20