Hawthorn Hawks v Geelong Cats
AFL Aussie Rules : Australia : AFL Premiership
Melbourne Cricket Ground (MCG), Melbourne
Saturday, 10th July 2010 - Start 14:10 AEST

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On paper this is the match of the week.

The intense rivalry stems back to September 2008 when the Hawks upset Geelong in the Grand Final. Since then the games featuring these two sides have been hard fought contests that have resulted in close Geelong wins.

Hawthorn is on a seven match winning streak and will feel that an upset is possible on Saturday afternoon, however they are without Captain Sam Mitchell, who is influential at stoppages. The Cats will be without key fullback Matthew Scarlett.

Hawthorn Hawks (7th, 8-6) Form : WWWWW

The loss of Sam Mitchell is huge for the Hawks because he is a genuine top line midfielder and his presence would have gone a long way to helping the Hawks keep competitive against Geelong. Second tier players will now need to stand up and be counted throughout the centre for the Hawks if they are to have any chance at making their unbeaten run 8 matches. Hawthorn are playing with a lot of confidence now but this will be their biggest test as they have only beaten two serious teams in their 7 match streak.

In defence Hawthorn will need to be at their best against a side that can score from any avenue. Stephen Gilham may get the task on James Podsiadly and he will need to hold the ‘J-Pod’ because when he fires Geelong usually put sides to the sword. The two young defenders in Thomas Murphy and Ben Stratton have been outstanding this season with Stratton receiving the Rising Star Award for last round. With the countless threats in Geelong’s forward line both of these players will need to be attentive and switched on against some of Geelong’s more nimble forwards.

The Hawthorn midfield will rely heavily on the elite Luke Hodge. He has been in exceptional form this season and is firming for the Brownlow Medal. He will need to be the inspirational leader for the Hawks yet again on Saturday and set the example for some of the younger midfielders. Clinton Young, Brad Sewell and Chance Bateman will need to be at their absolute best for this encounter so they can offer Hodge support. They are going up against one of the best midfields in the history of the game so it will not be an easy task.

Buddy Franklin was held to only 3 goals last week against the Dogs, and that is a result I am sure the Cats would take before the bounce. Tom Lonergan has put his hand up for the job on Franklin in the media this week and if he does get the task he will do very well to limit Buddy to only 3 goals. Clearly Buddy is the major threat for kicking goals, but if Jarryd Roughead can spark up there is no telling how dangerous this forward line could be. Roughead has failed to replicate his 2008 form and has really struggled this year so there is not much to suggest he will turn it around against a solid defence this week. Cyril Rioli is the man the Geelong must contain. He is explosive and can change the momentum of a game in seconds, and he is Hawthorn’s x-factor.

Geelong Cats (1st, 11-3) Form : WWWLW

Geelong had a comfortable 35 point win last week down at Skilled Stadium where they broke the record for most possessions in a match. They set the new mark at 505 and handball was the possession of choice. They may need to be more direct against a physical Hawthorn side on Saturday but should feel confident in getting the win and staying at the top of the table.

The loss of Scarlett will hurt the Cats, but only because he is one of the best fullbacks ever to play the game. Geelong has able replacements and Lonergan has already requested the important job on Franklin. Harry Taylor appears fit to come back into the line-up and that is a massive in because Taylor is the likely recipient of the centre half-back All Australian jersey, so his inclusion is nothing to be sniggered at. Josh Hunt and Andrew Mackie will be important with their mix of hardness at the ball and poise when disposing the ball. Darren Milburn and Corey Enright will be charged with the transitional play that will see the Cats launch into their attacking forays.

The midfield is once again the biggest strength of Geelong. I will mention some different names for once because there is too many good ones. James Kelly has for a time been questioned about how good he is. Experts have suggested he looks good because he plays in an extraordinary team. This year he has quashed those questions and has been one of the best for the Cats. Shannon Byrnes has also emerged as a solid contributor rather than a bit player and his ability to kick goals from midfield makes him a serious concern for the Hawks. Now for the big names. The Hawks have to find a way to curb the influence of Jimmy Bartel, Paul Chapman, Gary Ablett Jr. and Joel Corey. It is usually impossible to stop all four at the midfield is where I feel Geelong will win the game.

The forward line could be bolstered by the return of ruckman Brad Ottens. He has not played since round 6 and will be eased back into the line-up. Just having another big guy there will ease the pressure on Podsiadly and open up opportunities for the likes of Travis Varcoe and Matthew Stokes. These two small forwards will fight tooth and nail for the remainder of the year because when the Cats are at 100 percent strength I am not sure if there is room for both of them. The Cats should have no problem posting a score and I think they can get a comfortable win here.

LAst time these sides met

Round 2, 2010 at the MCG :
Geelong 14.16 (100) beat Hawthorn 13.13 (91)

The Betting Tip

The Cats to win in one of those games that remains fairly close for the duration of the day.

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Take Geelong on the Tribet at Centrebet To win by 16 or over at 1.76 (Medium-High Stakes)