Excelsior Rotterdam v NEC Nijmegen
Football : Netherlands : Eredivisie 2010/2011
Friday, 20th August 2010 - Kickoff 20:45

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Excelsior Rotterdam

Excelsior managed to beat big brother Feyenoord last week, after trailing 2-1 with only a quarter to go. But with a last-minute winner, the first points of the season were in. That was neccessary after a 3-0 defeat at de Graafschap, but Excelsior showed it's not all that miserable. They created some chances on the counter attack, also thanks to Feyenoord's clumsy defending.

Tactics for the match were plain and simple, lean back and give Feyenoord the initiative, and hit them on the break with fast counter attacks. In this match it worked out, the question is how it will work out against smaller teams.

It's still a question for me how the tactics for this match will differ compared to the match against Feyenoord. It seems likely the will play a bit less defensive, but the spaces at the back that might open up then could be fatal.

Excelsior is not a team of smart defenders, and defending with space behind them is a weakness. So a more offensive approach might lead to more pressure but also to more danger before their own goal.

For this match new signing Gudde is still unavailable.

NEC Nijmegen

NEC was involved in a goalfest last week against Willem II. They won it 5-3 eventually after trailing twice. It was a spectacular match, with both sides showing spirited play. NEC went on with their 4-3-3 formation, with the wingers playing a big role.

Winger Chatelle came on loan from Anderlecht and impresses, as did George on the other flank. Offensive they can creat chances by individual actions on the flanks or from passing from midfield. There is variation to surprise the opponent which is a lot harder to defend.

On the other end there were some mistakes that led to conceded goals. Both center defenders are slow and try to compensate that with good positioning and the backs are inexperienced.

All this leads to mistakes and misscommunication, and it was shown in the final result with 3 goals against. NEC are without Chatelle for the next weeks but have an able replacement with Goossens.

The Betting Verdict

Excelsior wants to stay in the Eredivisie, and are not afraid to defend for it a try to hit on the break. They have the players for it, with fast striker Fernandez who scored twice against Feyenoord. The defensive end is young as the whole team, and lack routine and experience to shutout teams of Eredivisie-level.

NEC has their qualities in the offensive end too, with the defence lacking the real speed to defend far from their own goal. But as long as they score more then they concede it's not a problem, like last week.

In this match I predict a bit less defensive Excelsior, who have to deal with 2 skilled wingers and a hard working striker. The space these guys will get will be used in full advantage, just as Excelsior will use the space NEC will give away.

In this scenario it's easier to predict the amount of goals than the winner, as both are very likely to score so the Over goal total will be my pick.

Over 2.5 is available around 1.70-1.75 and over 2.75 goals is available around 1.95 if you're willing to accept a half won bet at 3 goals.

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Take Over 2.5 goals at 1.74