Chelsea v stoke City
Football : England : Premier League
Saturday 28th August - Kickoff 3pm

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Chelsea

Last 5 at Home : W5-D0-L0 F29-A1

Champions Chelsea have hit the ground running in their title defence campaign with two big wins over WBA and Wigan both by 6-0 scorelines. This Saturday they return to Stamford Bridge looking to maintain their 100% start to the season and build on their fantastic home form towards the end of last year.

The visitors tomorrow will be Stoke City a side that the Blues have faced 4 times in Premiership competition and on each occasion it has been a Chelsea win. So instantly I imagine many will be all over Chelsea this weekend as this will be no more than a formality and given the stats of 29 goals scored and 1 conceded in Chelsea’s last 5 home games I can see why!

However, Stoke are a very strong side and very nearly took a point on their visit to Stamford Bridge in 09 when Chelsea needed a very late goal to take the points. Stoke has improved dramatically since that game but saying that they are facing probably the best team in the country at the peak of their powers right now and it’s easy to see why Chelsea are as low as 1.10 to win this game.

A fear for most Blues fans was whether Chelsea would stop their goal scoring spree from last season, a season that saw Chelsea score over 100 Premiership goals, a stat that no one had ever achieved before. Yet, start the season and in two competitive games Carlo Ancelotti's men have hit the back of the net on 12 occasions without reply which is sensational given the fitness of side is not up to a 100% just yet. If the Blues produce a similar display against Stoke as they have shown in their first two games it could well be another large victory but let’s see how Stoke has performed in recent visits to the Bridge.

I mentioned above that in all head to head its 4-0 Chelsea but looking at the two games at Stamford Bridge the result has been 7-0 and 2-1! So whilst the 2-1 win was almost a fortunatus one for Chelsea the 7-0 certainly wasn't and I'm not sure how confident the Stoke players are going to be when they visit the Bridge knowing that last time out they lost 7-0 and this year the Blues look just as ruthless! Statistically this matchup does not look good for Stoke.

Team news is that Carlo Ancelotti has just the one injury concern with Ivanovic trying to nurse a recent back injury. With Ferreria coming on for the Serbian last week and then setting up Benayoun for his first Chelsea goal I expect Paulo to start with the other 3 at the back started as they did v Wigan last time out.

Many are expecting Ramires to start but I don't think he will, Ancelotti will ease him in and given the start to the season of the 11 players he's been starting with disrupting the team seems pointless. This means a midfield of Lampard, Essien and Mikel with the attacking trio of Drogba, Anelka and Malouda.

Predicted Chelsea Lineup :
Cech, Ferreira, Terry, Alex, Cole; Mikel, Essien, Lampard, Malouda, Anelka; Drogba.

Stoke City

Last 5 Away Games : W1-D1–L3 F1-A13

With two top 12 finishes in 2 Premiership seasons for Stoke, many expecting good things from them this year but surprisingly Tony Pullis's men have had a terrible start to the year losing their first two games. Up next are Champions Chelsea away in what is arguably the hardest away game of the year, but this being said there is nothing to lose for Stoke and that might bring out the best in them.

Two defeats in two as mentioned above have come against Wolves away (2-1) and Spurs at home (2-1). Both games Stoke had spells of attacking ie. Late on against Spurs and mainly when chasing the game against Wolves, a big fear is that in both games Stoke didn’t take the game to either side and against Chelsea that could mean they are 2-3 down by half time!

If Stoke City let Chelsea have the ball and dictate play then there’s going to be only one winner, most sides like to visit the Bridge and play counter-attacking football with the best example being Man City in their 4-2 win at the Bridge last season. But given that Chelsea won all but 2 home games last year unless you can counter with exceptional pace and quality it won't work and with all due respect this Stoke side isn't of that calibre.

It's likely that Stoke will give up huge amounts of possession to the Blues and by doing so will obviously tire quicker and it's worth noting that Chelsea has had a week off whilst Stoke played midweek in the Carling Cup. The Stoke squad isn't the biggest and although it's not a major problem at this stage of the season but facing a rested Chelsea side away from home after playing a few days before is not ideal.

Team news is that new signing Kenwyne Jones is a doubt after getting injured 2 weeks ago at Wolves. From the recent press conferences it appears that Pullis will rest him until after the International break ensuring he comes back 100% in time for the Aston Villa game.

Elsewhere winger Lawrence is likely to be back on the bench as his calf injury appears to have cleared up but I don't think he’ll start. With Jones out we will see recent ex-Ipswich Town strike Walters starting along side Fuller and these two MUST put in a shift up top in ball retention if Stoke are to take anything from this.

Predicted Stoke City Lineup :
Sorensen, Huth, Abdoulaye Faye, Shawcross, Collins; Delap, Whitehead, Whelan, Etherington, Walters; Fuller.

The Betting Verdict

You just can't oppose Chelsea at the moment and given how poor Stoke has started this year it all points to a home win.

One for the accumulators I'd say. Good Luck.

The Pick :

Chelsea 3-0 Stoke City

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :

Chelsea 84% - Draw 12% - Stoke 4%

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

The 1.13 @ Ladbrokes is too short for singles but if you're desperate for that final "banker" in an acca then CHelsea "seems that team"

HANDICAP BETTING :

A bet on Chelsea -2.5 AH at 2.10 at Pinnacle seems value.

Chelsea to win by 3 or more i make 50-50 so 2.10 is a good price