Geelong Cats v St. Kilda Saints
AFL Aussie Rules : Australia : AFL Premiership
Melbourne Cricket Ground (MCG), Melbourne
Friday, 3rd September 2010 - Start 19:40 AEST

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What a match we have to begin the finals with. The Cats are coming in as the hottest team in the top 4 and the Saints are appearing as they may be struggling. Geelong will go into the game hot favourites and appear certainties to win this one based on their form.

The last meeting went in favour of the Saints earlier this year, but that was a match played in wet conditions which favoured a scrap rather than an open, skilful match.

Geelong Cats
2nd, 17-5 W/L,

The Cats are blessed with a full list to choose from aside from James Podsiadly who is suspended. Their form is warming as it normally does at this time of year and their biggest name, Gary Ablett, has had 3 best on ground awards in his last 3 outings so things are becoming ominous for opponents of Geelong.

In defence the Saints will have to find a way to get past the likes of Matthew Scarlett and Harry Taylor. Taylor will be the All-Australian centre half back and his ability to read the game and take a big mark at an important juncture of the game is not to be overlooked. These two will be well supported by David Wojcinski and Andrew Mackie who will provide run and carry off half back and the veteran Darren Milburn will offer that bit of experience and composure for the Cats.

The middle of the ground will be a battle but I think the edge has to go to the Cats. Geelong is led by Jimmy Bartel, Paul Chapman and Joel Selwood. These three are huge and use the ball ever so well not to mention their hard work that sees them actually win their own ball in the contests. Cameron Long will work hard to put a tag on someone like Nick Dal Santo of the Saints and I think the Cats have more quality that can rotate through the middle of the field. I haven’t even mentioned Ablett yet who will float between midfield and forward depending on how the match is going, but do expect every one of his touches to be clean and effective.

Up forward the Cats will be relying heavily on Steve Johnson. Johnson is considered a small forward but given the fact he lines up with two smaller men in Matthew Stokes and Travis Varcoe, he may play as a tall. The skill between these 3 is exceptional and if Cam Mooney can find some form with his lead up work I see no problem for the Cats in their ability to kick a winning score.

Saint Kilda Saints
3rd, 15-6-1 W/L/D,

The Saints were far from impressive last week. They missed easy set shots for goal and were comprehensively outplayed by a team who is not even in the finals. They can win this game but a drastic reversal in form will be needed and they will need to encounter a Geelong side that is having an off night.

Saints have had the best defence in the last 2 years in terms of points conceded. They will hope they can put the screws on the Cats on Friday night. Jason Gram and Sam Gilbert will be called on to get the ball into attack while it will be Zac Dawson and Jason Blake who will be asked to man up on one of the Geelong big men.

Steven Baker comes back after a 9 week ban and is likely to go back onto Johnson but this time it should be a much tamer affair. In round 13 Baker was laid off for repeatedly striking Johnson but this week the umpires should have the situations under control.

In the middle St. Kilda require a big game from Lenny Hayes and Leigh Montagna. They have been their two best midfielders this year and if they are any chance on Friday these two will really need to have an influence throughout the centre. Support will need to come from Dal Santo and Brendon Goddard but even that may not be enough because I am not sure how well they will do to counter to offense that oozes through the centre line of the Cats.

The forward line will be heavily reliant on Nick Riewoldt and Justin Kosi. Kosi has had a pretty average season but his best form can really see the Saints launch a serious tilt for the title. Stephen Milne is facing a fitness test and his inclusion will be vital but without him the side will need to find other methods of scoring.

The Betting Verdict

On a clear night the Cats will win this and with wet conditions I think the Saints will feel they are in with a sniff.

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Take Geelong at -6.5 points on the Pick Your Own Line Function at Centrebet. Odds are 1.53.
(High Stakes)