Dutch EreDivision
2010-09-25 - FC Twente vs Ajax Amsterdam
A Sports Betting Pick by Billie
Football : Netherlands : Eredivisie
Saturday 25th September 2010 - Kickoff 20:45
FC Twente
Another good clash is scheduled for Saturday night, when reigning champions FC Twente take on title chasing Ajax. Twente is one of the four unbeaten clubs besides Ajax, PSV and Groningen. But they are trailing four points on Ajax, as they managed to win only three of their six matches.
FC Twente has some problems scoring goals, but on the defensive end there are no worries so far. Only one goal conceded which was a penalty at VVV, and five clean sheets shows the solid base Twente has.
FC Twente played without focus in the first half of the Wednesday's cup match against amateurs Capelle. After a 1-1 halftime score, they came out pushing the tempo winning 4-1 in the end. But the truth is the eyes were half on this top clash already, and this is how Twente is preparing it, with full concentration.
Twente seems to live up in top clashes, just as their first Champions League match against Inter. They were satisfied with the 2-2 draw, but a little disappointment was heard as Twente could have even grabbed the win.
Twente striker Janko has a knee injury and will not train on Friday, and is highly doubtful for a role in this match. Defensive back Buysse has an ankle injury and will not play the next month or so, and another back Tiendalli is doubtful too. Forward Bajrami is unavailable with an ankle injury.
Ajax Amsterdam
Ajax are on top of the table, but their play is far from good so far. The match against Feyenoord was poor and they came out on top, and they had an easy night in the cup against MVV, winning 5-0 without wasting much of their strength.
But the good results are hiding some disappointing play so far from Ajax, the organization stands but the rest is mainly based on strikers Suarez and El Hamdaoui. Ajax lack a real quality field play and most of the time it's getting the ball to Suarez quickly and wait to see what the individual action brings.
Of course Ajax has more than this, but at the moment it is not showed and it’s questionable when they will improve their play, as long as results are positive.
Manager Jol knows what it takes to get a result, but it will be hard to get a win here for sure. Up front they are better than Twente, but seeing Ajax troubled last week against Feyenoord in the end, and a whole match in Madrid, it might turn out to be not good enough.
Ajax away from home is more vulnerable and against Twente they need to be at their best. The defensive backs Anita and van der Wiel are not impressing, and on midfield de Zeeuw is really out of form.
Comparing the midfield with Twente's midfield, Ajax are probably weaker at the moment and might have a hard time stopping Twente’s strong midfield.
The Betting Verdict
Twente are still searching under new manager Preud'homme, but it's still clicking as last year. At the back they are great so far, and the midfield can find each other blindly outplaying many opponents.
Their problem is up front scoring goals, because they are creating chances on a regular base now.
Ajax is at their best up front, in contrary to Twente. But they are heavily relying on their two strikers, and have a midfield that is more of a supportive role than a decisive role.
In a match where tactics can be important and the match will be more on midfield than usual, Ajax has a disadvantage. As long as Twente can hold out Suarez and El Hamdaoui, which is hard but not impossible, Ajax will have no other solution to break through. This might turn out to be crucial.
Both teams have Champions League matches coming next week, and I'm not sure whether this will be a factor here. But I doubt both teams will be unhappy with a point after a hard match, and I'm giving Twente the edge here.
Being set as underdog I'll take FC Twente on the AH with 0,+0.5. This is available at 1.70.
Furthermore I'm having a side bet on the draw, as I rate the chance of a draw at least as high as a victory of one of the two sides.
BEST BETTING TIP :
Side bet : Consider the Draw @ 3.30 +
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Main bet: Take FC Twente +0.25 AH at 1.70
