OSASUNA v REAL MADRID
Football : Spain : Primera
Sunday 30th January 2011

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Regular readers of this column will know how successful we have been backing Real Madrid to win by 1 or 2 goals this year.

The last two weekends I have deviated from that system and have been left with egg on my face on both occasions. Last week Madrid went to great lengths to avoid taking a two goal lead and a winning bet for this unlucky tipster, including missing a late penalty and bouncing what felt like 250 shots off the woodwork.

To make the same mistake three times would be negligent, so we return to the original strategy for Madrids trip to Pamplona to face Osasuna.

The fact of the matter is that Madrid arent fluid or exciting. Mourinho teams get the job done. They usually win, but of their 16 league wins this season they have only won by a margin of more than two goals five times, and the last time it occurred was November.

In perfect symmetry, Osasuna usually lose, but when they do its rarely by more than two goals. Of their 10 defeats, only three have been by more than two goals. They lost by three to Barcelona...and Madrid arent as good as Barcelona. And with Higuian out, Benzema looking like an expensive elephant, and a hostile Basque crowd on the visitors backs theres no reason to believe Madrid will have the firepower or the motivation to do any more than get in, win, and get out.

Theres certainly nothing to suggest Osasuna can pull off an Almeria style shock on the visitors. Camachos side are in a rotten run that has seen them drift ominously towards the relegation zone.

In Osasuna team news, Sergio Fernandez is a doubt while Nacho Monreal, Ruper and Alvaro Cejudo are expected to remain out. Walter Pandiani should return while Javad Nekounam and Masoud Shojaei are back from the Asian Cup.

There is the possibility that Emmanuel Adebayor will make his debut for Madrid after signing from Manchester City on loan this week, but lets be honest on this seasons form Madrid are probably better off sticking with the frustratingly milky Benzema. Dudek, Pepe and Higuain remain out

If it aint broke dont fix it. Try dutching Madrid to win by one or two goals in the winning margin market at 3.75 and 4 (Ladbrokes or bet365). If either comes the odds are 1.94...much more palatable than 1.35 for the straight away win or silly handicaps.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

Osasuna 0 Real Madrid 2

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :

Osasuna 15% - Draw 20% - Real Madrid 65%

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Dutch the following at bet365 or ladbrokes winning margin markets at a combined 1.94.:
Real Madrid to win by 1 goal at 3.75
Real Madrid to win by 2 goals at 4