Icelandic Football
2011-05-30 - FH Hafnarfjordur vs Stjarnan Gardabae
A Sports Betting Pick by Cornholio
Icelandic top league - Round 6
Monday May 30 2011, 19:15 (GMT)
With one game less than their close neighbours Stjarnan, FH now host the latter in their second home game in a row. Stjarnan have won two of three away games and the question is will FH show their power here after being unstable in the first few rounds. These clashes have offered many goals in recent years.
FH Hafnarfjordur
(2011 Record : 9th 1-2-1 6:4)
FH last league game was two weeks ago where they were lucky to escape with a 1-1 draw at home to Vikingur. Their game against Thor Akureyri was then postponed two times and will be played on June 13.
They played a really tough game against Fylkir at home in the cup on May 26. They managed to win 3-2 after extra time after trailing both 0-1 and 1-2. A great style of caracter but their instability keeps on showing.
Being the title candidates FH have not been impressive winning only one game of four. They have conceded in every game and must fix their defense if they are to stay in the top battle. Their scoring is around average with 1.5 goals per match scoring in all but one game.
FH Hafnarfjordur have a real chance now to show their scoring abilities as Stjarnan rarely play a scoreless game.
Stjarnan Gardabae
2011 Record : 4th 2-2-1, 9:7
Stjarnan have made a really good start with 2 win, 2 draws and 1 loss. What hasnt been surprising is their scoreline of 9:7 as they are known for scoring a lot and conceding a lot.
Stjarnan manager Bjarni Johannsson is quite effective. This was noticeable in the game against KR where he completely overturned the team setup from the game against Fram where they won 2-5. Against KR he tightened the midfield moving two of his regulars defenders into midfield postitions. KR didnt have any solution to this and the result was a fair 1-1 after Stjarnan took the lead.
However, quite ironicaly, Stjarnan met KR again on the same pitch in the cup on May 25, where they lost 0-3. Seems like KR had fixed their problems from the first game.
Stjarnan have conceded 6 of the 7 goals on the road, 4 against Keflavik and 2 against Fram. To keep a clean sheet against FH almost seems an impossible task but if FH does not manage to find some solutions to their midfield they could be able to hold on tight.
Stjarnan have decided to keep onto their two Danish midfielders, Nikolaj Hagelskjaer Pedersen and Jesper Holdt Jensen, who have been on loan with them, as they have been performing quite well in the first few games.
Stjarnan's new striker, Gardar Johannsson, has also been a real treat for the opponents so they really look good at the moment.
Head to head
2011 : FH - Stjarnan 1-0 (pre-season cup, neutral grounds)
2010 : FH - Stjarnan 1-3
2010 : Stjarnan - FH 1-4
2009 : FH - Stjarnan 5-1
2009 : Stjarnan - FH 1-4
2007 : Stjarnan - FH 1-4 (pre-season cup)
So the winning record is with FH Hafnarfjordur who have won five matches in last six and look at the number of goals?! It was a real upset last year when Stjarnan beat FH 1-3 in Hafnarfjordur.
The Betting Verdict
FH Hafnarfjordur is the favorite here, simply because they are playing at home and their team is stronger. They have played one game less and if they had won it they would be in the same place as Stjarnan in the table.
FH Hafnarfjordur will for sure want to revenge for their surprise loss here last season but the difficult game against Fylkir in the cup might become a factor. They will score against Stjarnan but the question is how well their defense will hold against a great attacking team.
After losing badly against KR in the cup Stjarnan must be back down to earth. Its a bit similar to FH, they have all the power to score here but how well will their defense hold.
I really dont see a draw here as I think this will be a very open game with some goals in it and not a narrow scoreline. But given FH instability I can not give them better win chance than 60%.
BEST BETTING TIP :
Main bet : Its not worth backing FH 1x2 on the odds on offer, around 1.45. Take Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.65 instead.Side bet : Consider a HT/FT bet of FH Hafnarfjordur/FH Hafnarfjordur @ 2.20 (Paddy Power)
