Icelandic Football
2011-06-06 - Stjarnan Gardabae vs Grindavik
A Sports Betting Pick by Cornholio
Football ; Iceland : Top league - Round 7
Monday June 6 2011, Kickoff 19:15 (GMT)
We now head into the last round before the break due to the UEFA U21 Championship where Iceland is among the finalists.
At the same time the Icelandic championship is drawing closer to the one third mark and things are becoming a bit clearer. Stjarnan and Grindavik will kick-off the 7th round.
Stjarnan (6th : 2-2-2 9:8)
After four games with out a loss Stjarnan was brought down to earth in the 6th round where they lost 3-0 away to the champions candidates in FH.
Before that game they had drawn against the champions rivals in KR so their last two games have been against two of the strongest teams in the league. They have played two games at home drawing them both.
Stjarnan now face a bit easier task where they host Grindavik on their artificial grass which has been so good to them. Stjarnan has looked good in the opening rounds and continue to provide a lot of goals while also conceding a lot, just like in recent years.
Still Stjarnan have scored a bit less than at the same time last year, 9 compared to 15. However, the fact is the league has seen 20% less goals this season compared to the last. Then you might also argue that their defense is worse than last year because they have conceded 10 goals compared to 9 last season which saw much more goals, like stated before.
Their games continue to provide goals and all of their games this season, except one, have offered goals. They tend to play very open game which is seen by their dodgy defense. However, they (the manager) have shown they can very well close up the midfield and stop the opponents from breaking through. This was seen against KR but failed against FH.
Against Grindavik, who's defense is not amongst the strongest, it can almost be taken for granted that Stjarnan will offer their usual open play. Bare in mind that the 0-0 draw against Vikingur was against one of the strongest defenses in the league and before Vikingur lost one of their key defenders.
Grindavik (8th : 2-1-3 8:9)
Grindavik's start has been a bit weird, so to speak. After beating Fylkir in the first round 2-3 they only scored a single goal in the next four games. Then came the game against a weak Thor side where they won comfortably 4-1.
What was important for them in that game is that their Scottish striker, Robbie Winters, scored his first goal. Whether this will trigger him into more action no one can really say but we all know what a goal can do for the strikers confidence.
At the moment Grindavik's away form (1-1-1) is a bit better than their home form (1-0-2) which is the same as in the last three seasons where their away form has been better to much better than their home form. Quite interesting.
However, lets not forget that their "away" game against Fylkir was really played on a neutral ground and on top of that played indoors. They then lost their next away game against the current champions, Breidablik, after leading at half time. In their third away game they beat Thor, which is not exactly amongst the strongest teams. Against Stjarnan their defense will surely have a tougher day.
Head to head
2011 : Grindavik - Stjarnan 1-3 (pre-season cup, neutral grounds)
2010 : Grindavik - Stjarnan 1-1
2010 : Stjarnan - Grindavik 4-0
2009 : Grindavik - Stjarnan 4-2
2009 : Stjarnan - Grindavik 3-1
2007 : Grindavik - Stjarnan 2-1 (League 1)
2007 : Stjarnan - Grindavik 1-3
2007 : Grindavik - Stjarnan 0-5 (pre-season cup, neutral grounds)
The Betting Verdict :
When Stjarnan plays the trend is plenty of goals. Their two clean sheets this season was against awful offenses where both Vikingur and Thor have only scored 3 goals. On the other hand, Grindavik has scored 8 goals but still only in three games.
Grindavik has conceded in all except against (surprise surprise) Vikingur. They even managed to concede against Thor. The chances of not coneding against Stjarnan are slim.
The head to head doesn't give us any valuable info except that Stjarnan has won both their home games against Grindavik since Stjarnan got promoted in 2009.
I expect a number of goals in this game and it will be interesting to see if R. Winters will start scoring for Grindvik after breaking the ice in the last round.
I'm giving Stjarnan the edge here and I expect them to get their first home win of the season.
BEST BETTING TIP :
Main bet : Take Stjarnan to win @ 1.90 which is more than fair (Interwetten, Ladbrokes)Side bet : Consider Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.65
