Icelandic Football
2011-07-10 - Fylkir vs KR Reykjavik
A Sports Betting Pick by Cornholio
Icelandic top league - Round 10
Sunday July 10 2011, 20:00 (GMT)
This is a battle between two teams who currently are in very different form. While Fylkir seem to be losing their track, KR REykjavik is on a winning streak and haven't lost a game all season.
So the main betting question is ... will Fylkir have any chance of stopping the great run of KR?
Fylkir (6th 4-2-5)
After a good start where Fylkir got 4 victories and 1 draw in the first seven rounds and stayed as high as 3rd place in the table they have once again showed how unstable they are. After a 4-1 loss to Stjarnan in last round and a 1-1 draw against Thor Akureyri at home in the round before they now sit in 6th place with 14 points and a record of 4-2-3, 14:15.
Though it's a little harsh to say they have missed out on the top battle the fact is they have already lost 3 games and in the passed three seasons (the seasons with 12 teams instead of 10) the champions have lost 5 games at the most. With 13 rounds still to go it's hard to imagine Fylkir not losing at least 3 games.
In the last round against Stjarnan they had no answer to Stjarnan's great tactics where they moved a midfielder into the heart of their defense to counter Fylkir's speed on the offense. They now face a much tougher and organised side in KR.
Fylkir's strength lies in the speed of their midfielders and strikers and this is seen in their high goalscoring of 14 goals, one of the highest in the league. The drawback, like with some other high scoring sides in the league, is that they concede too many goals. So far they have conceded 15 goals, also one of the highest in the league. This goal frenchy in their games has produced 7 under 2.5 out of 9 games.
Fylkir is very similar at home and away being 2-2-1, 7:6 at home and 2-0-2, 7:9 away. Still, one can see that their defense is tighter at home, conceding 6 goals in 5 games compared to 9 goals in 4 games. But looking at their oponents at home, Thor and Fram have been amongst them, two sides who aren't scoring too many goals.
If Fylkir loses against KR they can easily close in on the relegation battle if the sides below them manage to get something out of their games. They need to get the very most out of their players, especially those involved in their offensive play since KR seem very confident these days and are winning their games in a pretty secure manner even though they still just seem to be doing what has to be done.
KR Reykjavik (2nd 6-2-0)
KR's opening of the season has almost been flawless. With 6 wins and 2 draws they sit in 2nd place with 20 points, 1 point behind leaders Valur and with a game in hand. Their scoreline is 17:6 and after conceding 3 goals in the first two rounds they have managed to tighten their defense while scoring the second most goals in the league.
Yesterday KR got securely to the second round in the qualifying stage of the Europa league when they beat a team from the Faroe Islands 5-1 in their second leg. They are also through to the semi finals of the Cup after beating Keflavik 3-2 at home last Sunday. In that game Keflavik scored first but KR were 3-1 up after an hour and after that the result was never questioned.
KR have won their three last games in the league with the scoreline of 5-0, beating Grindavik 0-3 away and FH 2-0 at home. They have only once conceded more than 1 goal in a league game this season and that was all the way back in the 1st round.
KR Reykjavik have been excellent on the road winning 4 and drawing 1 and have a scoreline of 11:4. Actually they lead the away table by 4 points. Looking at their oponents on the road they have met Breidablik, Vikingur, Stjarnan, Fram and Grindavik. Of those five Fram and Vikingur are terrible up front while Grindavik is not much better. Against the two more attacking sides, Breidablik and Stjarnan they conceded 2 goals and 2 goal respectevely.
With that in mind you could argue that they are in a similar place as Fylkir and the same question can be asked; cna their defense hold against such a strong attacking side? It's hard to say but thay have kept a clean sheet in 3 of their 5 games.
If KR continues to play like they have it's hard to see how they are not going to grab all 3 points but they might have to score more than 1 goal.
Head to head
2010: KR - Fylkir 3-0
2010: Fylkir - KR 1-4
2009: KR - Fylkir 2-4
2009: Fylkir - KR 2-2
2008: Fylkir - KR 0-2
2008: KR - Fylkir 3-0
2007: KR - Fylkir 1-1
2007: Fylkir - KR 0-0
2006: Fylkir - KR 1-2
2006: KR - Fylkir 1-0
In between there are two pre-season cup games with Fylkir wining both 2-1 and 1-0.
The Betting Verdict
Everything points to a KR win here.
The current form along with the head to head in the league where Fylkir have only once won in the last five years and never at home. While Fylkir is slowly losing their grip KR is working like a machine and it's hard to see that change now.
BEST BETTING TIP :
Main bet :Take KR Reykjavik to win @ 1.80 (Bet365, Ladbrokes and others)
Side bet :
Consider Over 2.5 goals @ 1.55
Long shot :
Since KR Reykjavik have been drawing at halftime in 5 of their 8 games and Fylkir in 4 of their 9, why not try :
a HT/FT bet of Draw/KR Reykjavik @ 5.0 (Paddy Power).
