Icelandic Football
2011-07-24 - Stjarnan Gardabae vs Keflavik
A Sports Betting Pick by Cornholio
Football : Icelandic top league : Round 12
Sunday July 24 2011, 19:15 (GMT)
Here we have a game between two teams who are only 4 points apart in the table. However, that is enough to keep them four places from each other. Stjarnan is still in the top fight while Keflavik sit around mid-table not so far from the relegation zone.
Stjarnan Gardabae
Stjarnan have made an impressive first half of the season and their manager, Bjarni Johannsson, keeps coming up with great tactics in each and every game. This has lead to 18 points and seat number four in the league, 6 points behind leaders KR who have a game in hand.
Stjarnan's overall record is 5 3 3, 20:17 which means, interestingly enough, they have conceded more than the two lowest placed teams in the league. The difference is, of course, Stjarnan's great goalscoring. Just like in recent years it comes easy for them to produce goals and they have scored the third most in the league with only the leaders and FH Hafnarfjordur ahead of them (remember that FH beat Grindavik 7-2).
Stjarnan still haven't lost at home being 3 2 0 while being 2 1 3 away. Their major difference in home vs away is the number of conceded goals. While scoring half of their goals at home they have only conceded 5 of those 17 goals on their own rug, a term used for the artificial grass they play on.
The spirits around Stjarnan are very possitive, you can see that in their games and the interviews. The only question at this moment seems to be wether they will have the stamina and enough range of player to produce as good a second half of the season.
The main difference for Stjarnan this season compared to the last ones is that even they have scored a little less their defense has become a bit tighter and they aren't as wild as they were. Their games still produce a number of goals with 7 of the 11 games played being over 2.5 with one of those producing 7 goals, one 6 goals and two 5 goals.
The 6 goals game came in the first round away against Keflavik where Stjarnan lost 2-4 but things have changed since then with Stjarnan's defense improving and Keflavik's lack of scoring.
If Stjarnan manages to beat Keflavik they have a chance of jumping into the 3rd place and really become members in the title race. For this to happen they need to break Keflavik's solid defense which tends to sit back.
With Stjarnan's scoring ability it's hard not to see them scoring in this game but it must be kept in mind that they haven't scored too much against the strongest defenses in the league; none against Vikingur, 1 against KR, 1 against IBV and 1 against Valur. Still, apart from the game against Vikingur Stjarnan have scored in all but one game (0-3 loss at FH).
It is most certain that Stjarnan will press hard for a win here to secure themselves in the top fight. Winning here gives them an excellent chance of going even higher since their next two games are against Vikingur and Thor Akureyri, two of the relegation candidates.
Keflavik
Keflavik's season hasn't been good and they are too unstable. After playing the first four rounds without losing they lost 4 games in a row, then won the next 2 but then lost again away to Thor Akureyri.
This has left them in the 8th place with 14 points and it's only because of Fram's and Vikingur's terrible performance Keflavik isn't really in a relegation battle yet, being 7 points clear of the two.
Keflavik's problem has been their lack of firepower up front. After getting 4 goals passed Stjarnan in the first round they have only managed to score more than 1 goal in two of the other 10 games. And those where games against teams in the relegation zone, 2 goals against Grindavik and Vikingur.
Keflavik's overall record is 4 2 5, 14:15, meaning their defense is among the tightest in the league and only the top three have conceded less. Trouble is, a tight defense can only get you so far if you aren't able to score some goals.
Keflavik are more fragile on the road than at home, being 1 1 3 compared to 3 1 2 respectevely. Their scoreline is similar, 6:7 compared to 8:8 respectevely. Keflavik could have a really tough time at Stjarnan since they have been conceding away against high goalscoring teams, losing 2-1 to both Fylkir and Breidablik while managing to hold a 1-1 draw at KR who they have had good results in recent years.
Keflavik really must be careful and have improve their offensive style. It seems a dangerous move to continue with the same tactics of sitting back against a team like Stjarnan who seem to score at will.
If Keflavik loses this game they might becoming dangerously close to the relegation zone, expecially if the sides below them manage to get something from their games. Remember that Thor Akureyri has a home game against weak Vikingur while Grindavik plays at home against Fylkir's dodgy defense and Fram host IBV.
Head to head
This is only the third season where the two play in the same league in recent history.
Like already stated Keflavik won at home 4-2 earlier this season while drawing 2-2 at home last season and losing 4-0 at Stjarnan. In 2009 both games resulted in draws, 0-0 at Stjarnan and 1-1 at Keflavik. In 2008 the two met in the cup where Keflavik won 2-1.
The Betting Verdict
This is an important game for both sides. A win for Stjarnan gets them closer to the real title race while a win for Keflavik gets them further away from the relegation zone. Still, a draw might very well be acceptable for both side and that fact gives me a little uncertainty.
But with Stjarnan's goalscoring lately where they have scored 7 goals in their last two home games and Keflavik's lack of scoring Stjarnan must be the favorites here but this is by no means a banker bet.
I don't think we will see many goals here since Keflavik's defense is fairly strong and I'm predicting a low scoring win for Stjarnan but be aware of a possible 1-1 draw.
BEST BETTING TIP :
Main betA bet on Stjarnan to win @ 2.00 can't be overlooked (Ladbrokes)
Side bet
Go against the flow with under 2.5 goals @ 2.35 (Bet365)
