Borussia Monchengladbach v VfL Wolfsburg
Football : Germany : Bundesliga
Friday 19th August 2011 - Kickoff 18:30

Borussia Monchengladbach

Monchengladbach have made a great start to the season after (just) surviving in the Bundesliga last season - beating mighty Bayern Munich away and then drawing 1-1 at home with Stuttgart last weekend.

However, that home draw came at a cost with centreback Roel Brouwers being sent off so he is suspended for this match, and his partner centreback Martin Stranzl also struggling with muscular problems.

Coach Lucien Favre is talking about options of playing midfielder Havard Nordtveit in defence - it's a desperate measure.

Also worrying is the fact that Belgian striker Igor de Camargo, who got the winner against Bayern Munich, is also in trouble with a back injury and seems likely to miss this match.

Probable Monchengladbach Line-up :
ter Stegen
Jantschke, Nordtveit, Dante, Daems
Marx, Neustädter
Rupp, Arango
Reus, Hanke

VfL Wolfsburg

Wolfsburg has a good start to the season with a 3-0 away win over Cologne, but slipped up last week by conceding a late goal to lose 0-1 at home to Bayern Munich.

Coach Felix Magath has a full squad to pick from, and in midweek the Wolves were boosted further by the signing of former Stuttgart and Aston Villa player Thomas Hitzlsperger to add depth to the squad.

Probable Wolfsburg Lineup :
Benaglio
Hasebe, Kjaer, Russ, M. Schäfer
Träsch, Josué
Ochs, Salihamidzic
Helmes, Mandzukic

The Betting Verdict :

Wolfsburg are the stronger side, they have no player worries, and they have a good h2h record against Monchengladbach winning six of the last seven league encounters.

Earlier in the week Monchengladbach were the bookies favourites, but as the news has leaked out about player changes the money has been coming in for Wolfsburg to win.

I agree with that. While this one is not a "banker bet" by any means - but I do have the visitors around 50% likely to win - and so the price way above 2.00 means that it is a value bet worth taking.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

Monchengladbach 1-3 Wolfsburg

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :

Monchengladbach 25% - Draw 26% - Wolfsburg 49%

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

I'm on Wolfsburg to win at any price of 2.50+