GERMANY v AUSTRIA
Football : Euro 2012
Friday, September 2nd, 2011, 7:45PM GMT

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PREVIEW

Germany have torn through their group, and currently sit 10 points clear of the other teams in Group A. If they beat Austria, they will be the first team to qualify for the tournament to be held in Poland and Ukraine. With 7 wins from 7 so far for the Germans, including 22 goals for and a mere 3 against, you'd be bonkers to consider the Austrians.

Austria have an awful record against Germany, losing all of their previous 6 meetings. Their last win came in 1986. Far too long ago to matter. Austria need points here badly if they are to have any hope of grabbing 2nd place in the group, although I don't think they'll get it against a ruthless German side. Austria have managed just 2 wins in their 6 qualifiers so far.

The German win does not interest as it is priced way too low now, almost 1.20. Germany have not lost at home in 4 years, unless you count the 1-0 loss to Serbia in their final qualifying match for last years World Cup, which they did not take as seriously as they had already qualified. Joachim Lows team still have not made it and so I expect them to continue exactly as they have been, despite the certainty of qualification sooner or later. One could expect them to drop concentration if this was played away, but in front of their home fans I expect them to play this one like it is the first game of qualification.

Germany are being lumped on left, right and centre...for exactly the reasons I have mentioned above. However, I see they have only 2 proper strikers for this one, albeit the brilliant Miroslav Klose and Cacau. Mario Gomez, who has been in excellent form of late, and indeed scored the last time these two sides met, is not playing. Germany will go for the win, no question. What I do not expect them to do is turn on the fireworks and go for a thumping. So, a tasty bet has caught my eye on the Asian markets.

BETTING VERDICT

Looking on Bet365, Germany -2AH is priced down to 1.85 and you can get the Austrians on the other side of that bet at over even money. If Germany are happy with a simple win there is no point hoping they run up the score here and with Austria desperate to catch Belgium I can see them giving Germany a fight, although I still expect them to lose.

Only a 3 goal win for Germany will see this bet lose. I think the chances of that happening aren't as big as the markets seem to think.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

Germany to win but not by a landslide

HANDICAP BETTING :

Take Austria +2AH @ 2.05 (Pinnacle)