Euro 2012
2011-10-07 - Serbia vs Italy
A Sports Betting Pick by MaxySerb
Football : UEFA : Euro 2012 Qualifying
Friday, 7th October 2011 - Kickoff 19:45
Serbia
So that day has come. Luckily for Serbia the Slovenians failed to win their last game, in fact, they lost it and gave Serbia chance to qualify to EC.
Right now, Serbia is in second place in group, just one point more from Estonia and 2 points more that Slovenia. But, with one game more in their hands, Serbia now have just one aim - not to lose last two matches and that will be enough for Serbia to reach the playoffs.
Considering injuries, we are little concerned, we are without Nemanja Vidic. Man U player is called to the squad, but considering the fact that he didn't play football more than a month, he is probably not going to make the bench.
Kuzmanovic is also injured, but for me it is not a bad thing.
Rest of the squad is more or less 100% fit, so the starting line-up for Serbia should be 4-5-1 :
Jorgancevic or Stojkovic on goal. Defence will be Ivanovic (Chelsea), Subotic (Dortmund), Kolarov (Man C) and I'm still not sure who will be the fourth in defence, Bisevac or Savic (from Man C).
In midfield Tosic (CSKA), Krasic (Juve), Stankovic (Inter), Jovanovic (Anderlecht), Pantelic (Olympiakos) and up front maybe Ljajic (Fiorentina) or Zigic. For me, the weakest link is our manager, so we still have to see the final squad.
This qualification series, Serbia played 7 (4-2-1) and GD (12-7), I am not counting the game that Serbia lost in Genoa after the match was suspended due to crowd trouble.
Italy
Italy is already qualified like first in group so they are coming to Belgrade without any kind of pressure. That also means that Prandelli will mix-up his squad a little bit and give chance to players that didn't played so much.
Italians forwards that are unavailable are Balotelli, Pazzini, Gilardino, so Osvaldo (Roma) will get his chance again after few years pause.
I suppose that older players probably won't play also, so we probably won't see Pirlo. Also, Barzagli will play alongside Bonucci or Astori.
I see on Gazzetta that probable squad will be:
Buffon, Chielini, Barzagli, Maggio, Bonucci, De Rossi, Marchisio, Montolivo, Pirlo, Cassano, Rossi.
The Italian sides statistics on-field is 6-1-0 and a goal difference of 13-1 - a typically tight defensive Italian side.
The Betting Prediction
Serbia is in need of a win if they want to be sure to progress to next stage, if they don't win, they must not lose game against Slovenia. However, I really don't think that Serbia can win against Italy.
The Italians have only conceded one goal in this qualifications, and I think that is never been harder to score for us. Even though Italians coming with mixed squad, I don't think Serbia will be able to score.
But, Serbia are good in defense too, and we can really defend when we need to. Public expects a draw, and that would be enough for everybody in that match.
With this manager, Serbia still doesn't play a good football, every match players are concentrated on defense and they expect Tosic and Jovanovic to use speed and make some chances from crossings. Yes, we have too much crossings per game, even when is totally illogical.
For me, this is an UNDERS match, and a very, very likely draw.
The Statistics :
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BEST BETTING TIP :
Main bet :- Take Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.55 at Betsson
If you want a bigger payout you could try Under 1.5 Goals @ 2.60.
Side bets to consider :
- Correct score 0:0 @ 7.40,
- Half Time Draw @ 2.00
