Romanian League
2011-11-06 - Pandurii Tg Jiu vs Otelul Galati
A Sports Betting Pick by ROzsolt
Football: Romanian Liga 1
Venue: "Tudor Vladimirescu", Tg Jiu
Sunday 6th October - Kickoff time: 19:30 GMT+2
Pandurii (4th W-6 D-4 L-2)
Pandurii’s coach Petre Grigoras will face the team that he was in charge of for almost 4 years, but in 2009 they decided to split ways and Grigoras ended up in Targu Jiu where he is doing a fine job.
With 22 points in 12 games, Pandurii is 4th, above teams like Vaslui, Steaua or Otelul Galati. I don’t find this surprising at all, they have just continued their superb form from the second part of the previous season.
Pandurii is the best home team this season, they’ve already registered five wins and only a loss to Astra Ploiesti (I backed Pandurii on that one, of course). CFR Cluj, Gaz Metan and Universitatea Cluj all lost here without scoring a goal.
The problem with Pandurii is that they are not able to maintain their good form when playing away from home, it seems like they are always happy with a draw even though they have the potential for more. Only one win and 4 draws for them on the road this season.
Pandurii’s home form:
21.10.2011 Liga 1 Etapa 11 Pandurii Tg. Jiu 1 - 0 U Cluj
17.10.2011 Liga 1 Etapa 10 Pandurii Tg. Jiu 1 - 0 Gaz Metan Medias
26.09.2011 Liga 1 Etapa 8 Pandurii Tg. Jiu 1 - 2 Astra Ploiesti
12.09.2011 Liga 1 Etapa 6 Pandurii Tg. Jiu 5 - 1 Dacia Mioveni
22.08.2011 Liga 1 Etapa 4 Pandurii Tg. Jiu 2 - 0 CFR Cluj
Otelul (9th W-5 D-3 L-4)
Otelul is coming after an exhausting Champions League game against Manchester United in which they’ve made a lot of effort trying to keep the result decent and they managed to do it in my opinion. Manchester did just enough to win the game, they were not worried at any points that Otelul could score a goal so they were happy to keep the possession and let the opposition run after the ball.
Having collected no point or points in the group stage of the UCL is not a surprise for me, neither is for them, it was obvious since they decided not to strengthen the squad in the summer transfer period, spending no money at all, that they will not be able to compete with CL teams. Four defeats so far, three of them to nil are their results to this date, which makes them one of the two teams yet to earn a point in the UCL group stage (the other one is Dinamo Zagreb).
Otelul seems unable to keep up a decent level in three competitions, so they are not anywhere near a position that would allow them to fight for defending their title, I think they would be happy to finish top 6 this season.
After 12 games, Otelul has a negative goal balance (11-12) and already lost 4 games. However, they registered two victories in a row against Targu Mures and Gaz Metan. The last time they won two consecutive games they suffered defeats to nil in the following two games.
Otelul’s away form:
22.10.2011 Liga 1 Etapa 11 FCM Târgu-Mureş 1 - 2 Otelul Galati
02.10.2011 Liga 1 Etapa 9 Steaua 2 - 1 Otelul Galati
17.09.2011 Liga 1 Etapa 7 Vointa Sibiu 0 - 1 Otelul Galati
28.08.2011 Liga 1 Etapa 5 Dinamo 2 - 1 Otelul Galati
14.08.2011 Liga 1 Etapa 3 Ceahlaul Piatra Neamt 0 - 2 Otelul Galati
The betting verdict
Pandurii will always be likely to win their home games, not many teams can win there in a season, however, the last time I backed them (vs. Astra Ploiesti) they suffered their only defeat in six games.
It’s interesting that Pandurii has not made a draw at home and neither did Otelul Galati when playing away from home. Otelul failed to link two wins when playing on the road, after every success they suffered a defeat.
I think the main reason behind Otelul’s disappointing position on the domestic table is that they find it hard to resist both physically and mentally playing on three fronts. Actually, from the four teams that are playing in the European competition group stages, Rapid is the only one sitting on a top 5 position in the domestic league.
Based on stats, there shouldn’t be many goals in this match, but the odds for less than three goals are unattractive to say at least. I would say that the home team has the best chance to win this game, considering the fact that they managed to defeat some tough opposition here and that Otelul had a demanding match in the UCL against Manchester.
The Pick :
Pandurii Tg Jiu 1-0 Otelul Galati
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Pandurii to win at 2.20 LadbrokesConfidence: 6/10
