Olympiacos v Arsenal
Football: European Champions League
Tuesday 6 December 2011 - Kick Off 7:45pm
This game is live on TV

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Olympiacos

Olympiacos come into this final game in the Champions League Group Stage knowing they are still in line to qualify for the last 16 of the competition, but they will also be well aware that they may not be playing in ANY European competition after Christmas if they do not pick up a positive result here. The Greek side will be hoping their passionate support can inspire the team to one more big performance.

Group F is very open for the sides looking to reach the next stage behind Arsenal- the Gunners have already secured top spot courtesy of their win over Borussia Dortmund on Match Day 5. Olympiacos are 3rd in the Group, but have given themselves a big chance to progress after winning in Marseille last time out and now know they will qualify if they win this game and the French side fail to win in Germany. A draw will only suit Olympiacos if Marseille lose 2-0 or by 3 or more goals.

It has normally been very tough playing Greek sides in their own Stadiums during the Champions League era, although Olympiacos have won 1 and lost 1 there in the Group Stage. They come into this game having been unbeaten in their last 7 home games in all competitions, and they have won back to back games here without conceding a goal.

Ariel Ibagaza is likely going to miss this game having come off injured at the weekend. David Fuster and Olof Mellberg are both doubtful, while Pablo Orbaiz is likely to be a substitute again having returned to the squad at the weekend.

Arsenal

Arsenal have put their poor start to the season behind them in impressive fashion of late, although this is most likely an unwelcome distraction from their Premier League campaign having already secured a spot in the last 16. Arsene Wenger played a youthful side in the 0-1 defeat to Manchester City in the Carling Cup last week and he is likely to use the same kind of experiment line up in this game.

A win over Dortmund at the Emirates Stadium on Match Day 5, coupled with Marseille's home defeat to Olympiacos, meant Arsenal qualified as the winners of the Group. The Gunners have not been the best of travellers in Europe over recent seasons, but they have won 2 and drawn 1 this season so far.

As I mentioned, Arsenal's form has really improved in recent weeks and they are 9-2-1 in their 12 games since the 2-1 loss at Tottenham in the League. The only defeat came when Wenger made a number of changes to his line up against City in the Carling Cup. The team have won 4 consecutive away games coming into this one, and they have scored at least 2 goals in each of their last 3 including a 0-4 win at Wigan on Saturday.

There are a few injuries in the Arsenal squad, with the likes of Carl Jenkinson and Kieran Gibbs still out, while Abou Diaby is injured. I expect the likes of Mikel Arteta, Thomas Vermaelan, Robin Van Persie and Theo Walcott will be rested, giving Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Park Chu-Young, and Lukasz Fabianski some playing time.

Head to Head

These two teams were in the same Group a couple of seasons ago, and Olympiacos managed a 1-0 home win on the final Match Day in the Group Stage to progress to the last 16.

Arsenal beat the Greek side 2-1 at home earlier in the campaign, but the game was very close and Olympiacos were perhaps unfortunate not to get more out of it.

Prediction

This is clearly a far more important game for Olympiacos than it is for Arsenal, and the prices have been made up by the layers with that in mind. However, I still like the Greek side to earn their 3 points here and qualify through to the next round.

They are just long enough for me to take an interest, although quotes of odds-on are never justifiable considering Arsenal have performed well away from home in recent weeks and in Europe this season. However, we have to expect a very young Arsenal side to take to the field with the busy Christmas period starting and recent history has seen the Gunners lose at this stage of the Groups, especially away from home.

It's probably a little square, but the home side have far more motivation in this game and they will be playing their usual XI while Arsenal play an understrength and inexperienced team. I'll be taking the home win here.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

Olympiacos 1-0 Arsenal

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

I'll back Olympiacos to win @ 1.95