Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts
United States: NFL Football Week 16
Thursday 22 December 2011 - Kick Off 8:20pm ET
1:20am (British Standard Time)

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Preview

The Indianapolis Colts (1-13) are no longer winless as a strange Week 15 drew to a close, but they are now in a dangerous position where another win could end their chances of picking up Andrew Luck, something they seem very keen on doing. They face the AFC South Winners, the Houston Texans (10-4), this week and can be sure that their rivals will want to get revenge for years of taking losses to the Colts.

Indianapolis have shown signs of life recently since Dan Orlovsky has taken over as QB from Curtis Painter, but they are in danger of showing too much life as St Louis do not look capable of winning another game this season. While no team wants to keep losing, there must be some kind of tension in the Colts dressing room as the importance of getting the Number 1 Pick in the Draft is not being hidden.

The Colts have been playing better of late but they will face a Defense that has a lot to prove after throwing in their worst performance of the season against Carolina last week in a home loss. Houston were also missing Wade Phillips, the Defensive Co-Ordinator, in that game and his return to the sidelines cannot be underestimated.

Indianapolis will look to their running game to try and help Orlovsky out this week and I think they will have some success on the ground against this Defense. The Colts have been a little inconsistent with their rush, but they should be able to get established against this Defense which has allowed 4.2 yards per carry this year.

The most improved aspect of the Houston Defense remains the pass Defense, one that was shredded for fun last season, but has now allowed just over 180 yards per game through the air. Orlovsky should be able to make some plays against the Secondary if the ground is established as he should be in short and manageable situations. The Offensive Line has struggled, so Orlovsky wants to avoid obvious passing situations as Houston have a very good pass rush even without Mario Williams.

TJ Yates will continue as QB for Houston in the absence of Matt Schaub and he will look to bounce back from a poor performance against Carolina last week. Yates had played well in his first 2 starts for the Texans and I think he has a great opportunity to bounce back this week against a porous Secondary that has been affected by injuries. Yates will not have Andre Johnson for a second game in a row, but he should still be able to move the chains with the help of the running game.

Arian Foster was sat down in the loss to Carolina last week, but he has been having a very strong season for Houston in conjunction with Ben Tate. The running game has generated 4.4 yards per carry this year, and the Colts have traditionally struggled to stop teams on the ground although the are doing better this year than they have in previous years.

If the running game gets going here as it can, I can see TJ Yates having enough success in short yardage situations to make sure Houston keep the chains moving.

Head to Head

Houston have won their last 2 home games against Indianapolis, but they have really struggled in visits to the Colts, losing 9 in a row in Indiana.

While the Texans have not won here outright, they have won 2 of the last 3 against the spread against the Colts in Indiana.

Indianapolis are 5-9 against the spread this season, Houston are 9-4-1.

Other Interesting Trends

Indianapolis are 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games at home. They are 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 games overall.

Houston have won their last 4 games against the spread when considered the road favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points.

They are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home.

Prediction

I am going to back the Houston Texans to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:

First, I think the Colts could suffer a bit of a let-down after putting in a lot of effort to win their first game of the season.

Second, Indianapolis don't really want to keep winning now the embarrassment of a winless season is over. They want the Number 1 Draft Pick and would happily lose their last two games, a feeling that may produce a couple of lacklustre performances.

Third, Houston should be completely up for this game as they have a chance to finally win one on the road at Indianapolis and confirm their new found superiority in the AFC South.

Fourth, road Divisional teams are 52-28 against the spread if they lost their last game against a non-Divisional opponent when considered the favourite.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

Indianapolis Colts 17-27 Houston Texans

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

I'll back the Houston Texans -5.5 Points @ 1.92 (Coral)