Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots
United States: NFL Football Week 16
Saturday 24 December 2011 - Kick Off 1pm ET
6pm (British Standard Time)

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Preview

The New England Patriots (11-3) have control of the Number 1 seed in the AFC, but they know there are a group of teams behind them that would happily take that off their hands. However, there will be nothing anyone can do if the Patriots win their remaining two games, the first of which is against the visiting Miami Dolphins (5-9).

The Miami Dolphins had a terrible start to the season as it looked like they were going to be in the leading position for the Number 1 pick in the Draft, but they have recovered from a 0-7 start to go 5-2 in their last 7 games.

Tony Sparano has since paid for his job as Head Coach, although he had been a 'dead man walking' ever since Stephen Ross met Jim Harbaugh in the off-season before the latter took over as the San Francisco Head Coach. Sparano didn't have much luck as his faith in Chad Henne seemed to have been misplaced- since Henne has gone down for the season, Matt Moore has taken over at QB and the team have improved.

Moore should be able to benefit from Reggie Bush running the ball effectively, as the Patriots Defense has really stunk up the joint for the most part this season. Bush ran for 200 yards last week against Buffalo, while the Broncos were able to gain a lot of yards on the ground against New England last week. The Patriots have allowed 4.6 yards per carry this year and I expect Bush and Daniel Thomas will have a big game.

With the Dolphins running the ball, Matt Moore will be able to have a real go at this porous Secondary from short yardage situations. New England give up almost 300 yards per game through the air and they are going to find life a little tougher as Andre Carter, their premier pass rusher is out for the season. Miami's Offensive Line has not played that well thanks to injuries, but Matt Moore should be able to get time thanks to the effective running game.

While Matt Moore is in very good form, Tom Brady is being, well, Tom Brady. He gashed Denver's Defense through the air last week, but he might have a little more issues against the Dolphins unit that has been playing very well in the last few games. Brady has had his problems against Miami in the past, but I still expect he will be able to move the chains thanks to the match up problems created by Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski.

One problem for Brady could be that the Offense may be a little one-dimensional as the running game figures to have a tough time. The Dolphins have allowed just 3.6 yards per carry this year and could keep Brady in obvious passing situations. That is when their pass rush, which has 27 sacks in the last 8 weeks, could cause Brady some problems, particularly behind his Offensive Line which has had a tough time this year protecting their QB.

Head to Head

Miami have been beaten handily in their last 3 games against New England, all of those coming by at least 14 points.

New England have won 3 of their last 4 games at home against Miami, however they have only gone 1-3 against the spread in those games.

The Patriots are 4-2 against the spread in the last 6 games in the series.

However, the road team is 7-2 against the spread in the last 9 games in the series.

New England are 8-6 against the spread this season, Miami are 7-6-1.

Other Interesting Trends

New England are 15-6 against the spread in their last 21 games as the home favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points.

They are 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games against a team with a losing record on the road.

They are 7-2 against the spread in their last 9 games against Divisional opponents.

Miami are 21-8-1 against the spread in their last 30 games on the road. They are 18-7-1 against the spread in their last 26 games as the road underdog.

Prediction

I have to say that I really like Miami to cover the spread with the big points start for the following reasons:

First, Miami have been playing very well since Matt Moore took over as QB and they have covered in 7 of the last 8 games they have played, the other being a game when Moore was forced to leave the game early.

Second, New England's Defense has been terrible and that will allow Miami to control the clock and they should be able to score a few points too.

Third, the Patriots could have a hard time going up against this Defense which is playing very well at the moment and one that will force Tom Brady to make a lot of throws to keep the chains moving.

Fourth, Tom Brady is 5-15 against the spread in the last 20 home games when he is favoured by 9 points or more.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

New England Patriots 31-27 Miami Dolphins

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

I'll back the Miami Dolphins +9.5 Points @ 1.95