Minnesota Vikings @ Washington Redskins
United States: NFL Football Week 16
Saturday 24 December 2011 - Kick Off 1pm ET
6pm (British Standard Time)

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Preview

This is a game between two teams that are not going to do much this season, but are looking to build some momentum for the new season as players play for their futures. The Washington Redskins (5-9) have been really competitive in the last few weeks since giving Rex Grossman his job back as QB of the team, and they come into this one fresh off of a surprise win over the New York Giants.

They will entertain the Minnesota Vikings (2-12) who have had a season far worse than they imagined it would be. They have lost 6 in a row coming into this one and they were completely outgunned by the New Orleans Saints at home last week. However, they have been at least a little competitive in games before the loss last week.

Adrian Peterson was back in action for the Vikings last week and he should be able to continue his return to the side with a big game. Washington have only given up 4.1 yards per carry this year, but the Vikings have been able to run the ball effectively and I imagine we will see a lot of Peterson in this game.

That will be down to the fact that Christian Ponder has really struggled in recent games after looking pretty good in his first couple of games. Ponder is playing behind a porous Offensive Line, and faces a Redskins Defense that has already recorded 37 sacks and will be sending in the pass rush after the QB. However, if Peterson can run the ball effectively, Ponder will get a chance to work from short and manageable situations and may be able to move the chains.

Washington have been relying on that Defense to try and keep them in games as they have not been consistent enough on Offense to score enough points to win games outright. Rex Grossman has remained the inconsistent enigma that have people wondering if 'Bad Rex' or 'Good Rex' will turn up to play, although he has a fantastic match up against a terrible Vikings Secondary.

The problem for Grossman will be if Roy Helu is not at full health to run the ball. The Vikings have been strong against the run for most of the season, allowing just 3.8 yards per carry, but they have begun to struggle recently and that would help Grossman no end. However, if Helu is banged up like he was last week, the Vikings could keep Grossman in 3rd and long passing situations and that would be trouble.

Minnesota have 40 sacks on the season and will be able to create problems in the backfield in those situations as Washington's Offensive Line has really had a hard time protecting whoever has been under Center and are missing Trent Williams. With penetration, the Vikings could force Grossman into mistakes, although they haven't recorded an Interception in 9 games.

Head to Head

Minnesota beat Washington by 4 points when they met here last year, covering the 1 point spread as the favourite.

The Vikings have actually won on their last 2 visits to the Capital and they have won 3 of the last 4 here in the series.

The teams have split the last 6 games against the spread.

Washington are 7-7 against the spread this season, Minnesota are 5-7-2.

Other Interesting Trends

Washington are 7-19 against the spread in their last 26 games as the home favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points.

They have lost their last 7 games against the spread as the home favourite.

They are 2-13-2 against the spread in their last 17 games against a team with a losing record on the road.

Minnesota are 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home.

They are 5-12-2 against the spread in their last 19 games as the underdog.

Prediction

I am going to back the Minnesota Vikings to cover the large spread for the following reasons:

First, Washington have been playing well of late, but it is tough to back a team with a losing record to cover a TD spread.

Second, the Redskins have really struggled with the expectations of being a favourite, particularly at home.

Third, Minnesota should have enough success with their ground game to score points and control the clock. If the game is shortened by running plays, the 6.5 points could be a lot to overcome.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

Washington Redskins 24-20 Minnesota Vikings

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

I'll back the Minnesota Vikings +6.5 Points @ 1.95