Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans
United States: NFL Wild Card Round
Saturday 7 January 2012 - Kick Off 4:30pm ET
9:30pm (British Standard Time)

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Preview

As soon as it was clear that Peyton Manning was going to miss much of the season for the Indianapolis Colts, many thought it was time for the Houston Texans (10-6) to win the AFC South and finally make it to the Play Offs in their short franchise history. A lot less would have predicted the rebuilding Cincinnati Bengals (9-7) would have made it this far, especially in a Division containing both the Baltimore Ravens and the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Houston have not had an easy path to this stage, losing key players throughout the season but continuing their surge to the post-season. Mario Williams was a big loss on the Defensive side of the ball, but Wade Phillips has had a real impact in his first season as the Defensive Co-Ordinator and changed the whole culture of the team.

However, further injuries to Matt Schaub, Matt Leinart and Andre Johnson made it tough for the Offense to keep churning out the numbers that would have made them one of the favourites to win the AFC Championship. Johnson is available for this game, but will have a rookie in TJ Yates throwing the ball to him.

Yates will be hoping he will have a little more time to move the chains in this game than he did when the teams met earlier this campaign, but the return of Johnson should allow him to do so. In the first meeting, the Bengals made sure they loaded the box to stop the running game and that was an effective tactic until the final minutes of the game when they lost by 1 point on a last second TD thrown by Yates.

Arian Foster and Ben Tate expect to have a bit more running room against a Bengals team that has struggled to stop the run in the last few weeks. They allowed 4.7 yards per carry in the last 6 weeks of the season and that is something the Texans will look to expose.

On the other side of the ball, we have another rookie QB in Andy Dalton throwing for the Bengals, a QB that has played the entire season and looked good enough to be recommended as rookie Offensive Player of the Year by Ben Roethlisberger.

This is a tough situation for him as he goes against a Texans team that has really played well on the defensive side of the ball all season. Dalton has also been suffering with the flu, but he does have some real talent in the WR positions that could help him, especially in the form of AJ Green. Houston are ranked as the number 2 Passing Defense in the League this season, but I can see Dalton having a little bit of success as long as they can run the ball properly.

That will be down to Cedric Benson, although he doesn't have a great match up against a Defense that allows 4.1 yards per carry. I expect the Bengals will still try and pound the ball and keep the pressure off of Dalton at QB and allow him to manage the game from 3rd and short situations.

Head to Head

Houston have won the last 3 games against Cincinnati, including a 1 point win at Paul Brown Stadium earlier this season.

The Texans have covered the spread in their last 4 games against the Bengals.

Houston are 9-5-2 against the spread this season, Cincinnati are 8-6-2.

Houston are 3-2 against the spread against fellow Play Off teams this season, Cincinnati are 1-5-1.

Other Interesting Trends

Houston are 5-2-1 against the spread in their last 8 games as the home favourite.

Cincinnati are 3-1-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the road underdog of between 3.5 and 10 points.

Prediction

I am going to back the Cincinnati Bengals to cover the spread in this game for the following reasons:

First, Houston have come into this game off 3 consecutive losses and will be under a weight of expectation in their first home Play Off game.

Second, Cincinnati did well against the Houston rushing attack when they met earlier this season and they will make it tough for TJ Yates to move the chains with consistency.

Third, how about this for a statistic; QBs making their first start in the Play Offs are 2-10 against the spread when set as the home favourites (TJ Yates' situation).

Fourth, Cincinnati have performed well in this spot as the underdogs, going 17-9 against the spread since 2009, and this has all the makings of a field goal situation.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

Houston Texans 17-14 Cincinnati Bengals

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

I'll back the Cincinnati Bengals +4 Points @ 1.95