SAN ANTONIO SPURS @ MIAMI HEAT
Basketball : North America : NBA
Tuesday, January 17th, 2012, 7:30PM US
(12:30AM GMT)

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PREVIEW

This is a big match that will be played without some big names, as Miami will not have Dwayne Wade and San Antonio will be without Manu Ginobili. However, the Heat still have LeBron and Chris Bosh, and are favoured by 7 points. I think it's going to be closer than that.

In a cramped season that has seen teams play for days on end without a break, Miami now play their first game after 3 days rest. That last game, on Friday, saw Wade do his ankle, but the Heat still have enough talent to beat the Spurs, who are without a win on their travels, one of only 2 teams to have that weird stat.

San Antonio may be missing Ginobili but they do have the services of Tony Parker and Tim Duncan, and they have actually gone 6-2 without their star player, so the others should not be underestimated. San Antonio are averaging 100.8 points this season, but if you look at the last 8, played without Ginobili, they are averaging more, 102! Tim Duncan was in excellent form on Sunday, scoring 24 points to help the Spurs win 102-91 over Phoenix.

Miami are averaging 106.2 points per game and giving up an average of 99.3, which is less than 7 points differential. Yet here they are expected to win by 8? Sure, San Antonio have not won on the road, or covered the spread, but it is only 4 games. San Antonio are a good team, and it's hard to argue that when you see they are 9-4, compared to Miami's 8-4 mark for the season. Miami have that record thanks to a rotten run which has seen them lose their last 3 straight.

Bounceback spot this might be for the Heat, especially at home, but the Spurs were resting yesterday and Miami may well have rested too long. They are also not at full strength, which has affected them in recent games. Denver managed to beat the Heat 117-104, so I have enough faith in San Antonio to keep it respectable.

BETTING VERDICT

Do not be surprised if the Spurs pull the upset in Florida for their first road win. It has to come sometime. I'll take the Texans with the points.

The Pick :

San Antonio Spurs +7

HANDICAP BETTING :

Take the San Antonio Spurs +7 @ 1.95 (Pinnacle)